Karl on Cars - March Madness -- Truck sales Tank, Sedans-CUVs Up

March Madness -- Truck sales Tank, Sedans-CUVs Up

The final numbers for March are in. The news isn't pretty, but that's not particularly surprising. Our data hounds have crunched the figures and added their trademark analysis to give them meaning. Here are the sales numbers for the "Big 6" automakers:

1. Chrysler LLC is down 16% so far this year, with Wrangler down 31%, Grand Cherokee down 25%, Ram down 25%, Town & Country down 7%, Compass down 12% and Durango down 37%. But the Avenger is up 63%, Sebring is up 45% and even the Caliber(!) is up 15%. Who knew?

2. Ford Motor Company is down 9.2% so far this year, and truck/SUV sales are in the tank. The following models are down by the following numbers for the year: F-Series 13.7%, Expedition 24.5%, Explorer 20.4%, Mountaineer 21.2%, Navigator 20.7%, Mark LT 49.4%. On the upside, Focus, Escape, Mariner and Ranger are all up for the year.

3. GM is down 11.4% overall, with truck sales suffering again. The Escalade, Tahoe and Trailblazer are down over 20%, while the Yukon and Silverado are down over 30%. Curiously, small cars at GM are also down. Aveo is off 19.2% for the year, and Cobalt is down for March (18%) though overall for the year it's up 14.5%. But the crossover SUVs (Acadia, Enclave, Outlook) are doing well and Aura is up 22%, Malibu is up 16.7% and CTS up 55.1%.

4. Honda is the only member of the "Big 6" up for year-to-date sales, at 1% above 2007. The Fit is up 79.3%, the Civic is up 15.3% and the CR-V is up 7.9%. Meanwhile Accord is down 3.9% for the year and Acura as a brand is off 12.9%. Every Acura was down in March, and if it wasn't for the Acura division Honda would be doing extremely well (much better than the 1% it is up overall).

5. Nissan as a whole is down 2.0% with truck sales off 9.5%, Quest off 36.8% and even the G35 sedan off 12.3%. But unlike Acura and Lexus, the company's luxury division (Infiniti) is up overall (1.3%) and the Versa and Sentra are both up over 20%. Altima is up 4.6% and G37 coupe is up 92.1%.

6. Toyota's overall sales are off 4.4%, with Lexus off 8.3% and the Corolla off 23% for the year. But the Yaris is up 60.4%, Prius is up 9.5%, Scion xB is up 39.1% and -- believe it or not -- the Sequoia is up 14.6%. The Land Cruiser is up as well (80.8%), as is the Lexus LX (135%), but both are small-volume models. The Highlander is up 8.7% and the Camry is up 2.4%. But FJ, RAV4 and 4Runner are all down over 10%.

We've got data on the other brands as well, but these six manufacturers make up the bulk of U.S. sales and paint an accurate picture of the industry as a whole.

So, anyone out there shopping a full-size (or even midsize) SUV or truck these days?

Posted by Karl Apr 4, 2008 6:00 am

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Categories: Automotive News | Domestic Manufacturers Problems/Challenges

Comments

estreka - Apr 5, 2008 12:34 pm (#30 Total: 49)

subarctic north - Great Falls, MT

Fuel prices haven't affected me much, so I'm not joining the subcompact frenzy. I'm also thinking of buying a Nissan Titan. Problem is, I need some hefty towing capability. I'm currently looking into forced induction kits for the 5.8L. If I can score a Titan for sub-$20K, I'll be in business.

I wish I made $20/hr. I'd be a millionaire by now. Right now I'm pulling down about $11.66/hr (I work 80-130hrs/week).

chevy598 - Apr 5, 2008 1:13 pm (#31 Total: 49)

brn,
The average person makes $20 an hour, and the average american works 50 hours a week. At 11/2 for over 40 your looking at $55k-$60k a year. You would be suprised to find out how many non college educated small buisness owners out there make that make $70k a year. I know a guy that owns a roofing company that makes that much and he doesn't even have a high school diploma. My best friend made $65k last year driving a semi cross country.

I don't live there but head to Wyoming. Guys out there are getting jobs starting at $18/hr or even more if you have an skills at all.

blueguydotcom - Apr 5, 2008 6:53 pm (#32 Total: 49)

San Diego CA

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html

Reality - median household income is ~44k. Only 80% of people over 25 are high school graduates. Only 25% of people over 25 have a bachelor's in the USA.

Look at those numbers for a second. If your average household income exceeds 150k, you're in the top 15% of all households in america. Over 200k puts you easily in the top 10% of US households.

firstwagon - Apr 5, 2008 8:31 pm (#33 Total: 49)

People need to get off their butts if the US expects to compete in the world.

The number of people in China and India with a degree is increasing at an enormous rate.

A shift in power could be coming.

opfreak - Apr 5, 2008 9:50 pm (#34 Total: 49)

chevy598 .... then how did people in ca buy all those 500k+ up homes? the median incomes are/were low.

Look at the subprime mess. Just because a loan is called subprime doesn't mean the borrow was really subprime, alot went to people with good credit, that just faked their income.

Or better yet, toke an interest only loan, or worse a loan with negatice amotrization, so the actual balance went up.

When the home prices were going up 20-30% a year, it was easy to cash out, ethier sale or refiance.

heck you bought a ca home for 500k in ~2001 or even later in 2004.

The next year it was worth 600k a year later 720k. With the interest only payments your monthly payment was very low. And since now your 500k house was worth 720k, Why not take a 2nd mortage on it. cahse out 200k. buy a pool, remodel, buy a porcshe.

chevy598 - Apr 6, 2008 1:57 am (#35 Total: 49)

opfreak,
I just did some research the average porcshe 911 buyer has a median income of $310,000 a year.

Q: What's the profile of Porsche buyers?
A: The Porsche customer has always been [relatively] young. [In the U.S.] the typical 911 buyer is 46 to 65, average age 52. Household income: $310,000. The Boxster buyer is 36 to 55, with an average age of 47 [and] an average income of $243,000. [Buyers are] entrepreneurs, doctors. If the economy comes down, the customer base will be much more stable than in the past.

That was porcshe's CEO Wendelin Wiedeking. If you don't want to believe porcshe's CEO I don't know what to tell you.

$310k a year equals about $3,900 a week take home pay after taxes. The average 911 buyer wouldn't be caught dead living in a measly $500k home.

Here's a link to the BuisnessWeek article I got the qoute from.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jan2001/nf20010112_405.htm

opfreak - Apr 6, 2008 10:20 am (#36 Total: 49)

your helping me prove my point, thats a 2001 article. it sold 48,500 total that year. In north america alone , last year they sold like 33k+.

2001 is a common start date for the housing boom... most people think house prices should return to those levels.

chevy598 - Apr 6, 2008 12:00 pm (#37 Total: 49)

I didn't help you prove anything. In the last 7 years the average porsche 911 buyers income has went up $80,000.

The housing boom started in the mid nineties. By 2001 the housing boom was already starting to slow down in parts of the country like the mid west. Only certain parts of the country were seeing huge yearly gains after the dot com bust in 2001.

I suppose every Bugatti is owned by a guy making $100k a year who just flipped 8 $500k houses to pay for it.

Here's a more up to date figure. This one's from Forbes 3/27/2008.

"Take the Porsche 911. Its buyers are 86.8 percent male with the average age of 51 and median income of $390,000. They are driven to succeed and like to reward themselves for achieving their goals."

http://finance.yahoo.com/family-home/article/104726/What-Your-Car-Says-to-the-Opposite-Sex

opfreak - Apr 6, 2008 1:33 pm (#38 Total: 49)

and those people are still buying. God are you that freaking dense.

The increase in sales of porsche and other luxury goods, was in a large part caused by easy money.

The core buyer has not been effected. Thats why sales are only down 12%. Its not the guy with the 399k income that stopped buying. Its the guy thats pretending.

opfreak - Apr 6, 2008 1:34 pm (#39 Total: 49)

and the boom was not over in 2001. Unless you like reviseing history

chevy598 - Apr 6, 2008 2:26 pm (#40 Total: 49)

You are the one that can't admit to being wrong.

"and those people are still buying. God are you that freaking dense. "

No they are not buying!!! March sales of the 911 were down 76% compared to last March. 911 sales are down 53% YTD, and the average buyer of that car makes $390k a year period!!! The "core" buyer making $390k a year isn't going out and buying a 911 right now. Porsche's sales numbers are being propped up by other models.

As I said before, 911 sales are a direct indicator of how the economy is affecting the wealthy.

In most of the country if you entered the housing market after 2001 you missed the boat. Some parts of the country haven't seen their home values rise in 7 years.

Since 2001 yearly double digit increases of home values has only been happening in California and a few other pocket areas in the country.

The house I live in now was built in 2001 for $145k. I bought it in 2003 from the previous owner for $130k. The market in the mid west was already so bad by 2003, that the bank had to let him sell it for less than he owed.

Right now California is going through what the rest of the country has been dealing with the last 5 years.

blueguydotcom - Apr 6, 2008 3:50 pm (#41 Total: 49)

San Diego CA

Chevy,

You're right that the core buyer isn't dropping on a new 911. They're buying up real estate at firesale prices. You can buy condos in San Diego now that will turn a profit on rental immediately, without the tax write-offs even included. You couldn't do that in 05. People with disposable income are still spending...they're just buying things that will make far more money down the road.

A friend just called me about a new mini-mall he's involved in building. Minimum buy-in's 200k and it's a lock to give owners a giant write-off for 10 years. He said most people investing are doctors, lawyers, etc...the folks who don't see an economic downtown. They see opportunity. "When there's blood on the streets, buy land." - Baron Rothschild

chevy598 - Apr 6, 2008 7:29 pm (#42 Total: 49)

blueguydotcom,

We are getting a lot of that were I live also. Money people are comming in and scooping up real estate left and right. Now's the time to be looking for rental property if you got the dough.
The paper where I live just did a story about investors buying two or three rentals at a time through auctions. It pays to have money in your pockets when real estate is rock bottom.

opfreak - Apr 6, 2008 8:55 pm (#43 Total: 49)

chevy598, you must be stuck in your own little world.

alot of the midwest has been rising until the past year or so. and has been falling.

most of that rise wasn't as big or as fast as places like FL, NV, CA, and the drops are not as steep.

Plus porsche sales are/were so great in the midwest, that porsche didn't even show up to NAIAS this year. Since LA, and the likes sell many more cars.

And once again... You missed my point... that the rise in sales over the past 5 years in luxury car manufactures has been due to easy money being lent left and right.

The true market for the porsche car buyer has always been their and always will. The poser market which allowed them record sales year after year has closed. So now that the poser is out, sales go back to normal... That says nothing about how the wealthy in the country are doing.

in fact if now you claim they are buying real estate, then they really aren't hurting because they have cash for that.

chevy598 - Apr 7, 2008 1:15 am (#44 Total: 49)

opfreak,
  Now you're taking shots at the mid west because your arguments full of holes. Sure I believe you, every Porsche buyer lives in southern California.

I’m not talking about a dime a dozen 335i luxury car. We’re talking about a 911 super exotic car.

How many 911 posers do you think are out there when the average buyer makes $390k a year? There’s not an asterisk next to $390k* that says excluding posers.

What does it take to believe that a 911 buyer is wealthy when they have an income averaging $390k a year?

Whether they live in an outhouse or a palace they make $390k a year. What don’t you get about that?

According to you now that the 911 posers are gone the average 911 buyer’s income should jump to about $600k a year for 2008.

I live in the mid west. Houses here have never gone up by 10%-20% a year. That's why you guys are getting robbed out in California. People in California are still paying 2 or 3 times the national home average. In my little world you would get laughed at for trying to sell 1800sqft house for $250k.

  We haven't seen yearly increases of more than 3% since before the dot com bust. The average home in Michigan sold for $141,022 in 2007. That's including a 5.8% drop in 2007, and a 2.2% drop in 2006. So the average home in Michigan was about $155k at its peak value in 2005. It’s pretty hard to flip a house and make a $100k when it only sold for $155k in its heyday.

If they topped out at $155k, how much could they have possibly gone up since 2001?

""most of that rise wasn't as big or as fast as places like FL, NV, CA, and the drops are not as steep. ""

You just proved my argument. Only 3 or so states ever seen prices explode like that. The other 47 states where 70% of America’s population resides never seen housing jump like that. They weren't selling a home every two years for $150k or more, and then going out to buy a Ferrari and a swimming pool.

Some wealthy people are buying real estate and not wasting their money away on super expensive cars right now. Wealthy people always have money. It’s whether the moneys being invested or being spent on luxury items, and that’s called consumer confidence. Right now it’s at rock bottom and the auto industry is paying for it.

opfreak - Apr 7, 2008 6:10 am (#45 Total: 49)

and those states I pointed out is where most of the posers lived in.

Like I pointed out before... Porsche doesn't even come to NAIAS because they sell so few cars in the midwest.

rick8365 - Apr 7, 2008 8:19 am (#46 Total: 49)

estreka -

you can probably get a new XE KC Titan for below 20K. Or, buy a slightly used SE for 20 - 25K. I found one that I'm thinking about - an '06 SE KC 4X4 w/ under 18K miles asking $23K.....and the truck is like new and very well equipped. Rebates on new ones help to drop prices on used too (IMO).

mirth - Apr 8, 2008 9:31 am (#47 Total: 49)

USA

opfreak - Nobody comes to NAIAS in order to sell to the midwest, not even Detroit. They come there because they get the most media coverage for their buck. Apparently Porsche didn't get the memo.

myob - Apr 12, 2008 1:35 pm (#48 Total: 49)

Some of the posts here illustrate just how unknowledgeable of the economic picture most white collar Americans are. $70K is certainly NOT "average joe" territory and just because people in your office make $20/hour or better, it doesn't mean others do.

This would all be fine except for the toll inflation has taken on real earnings. Just as your gasoline has become more expensive, so has food, education, utilities, taxes, and most other items.

Real inflation is running roughly double what the government's official CPI numbers reflect. See www.shadowstats.com for a detailed analysis on what is and isn't being reflected accurately and why it isn't.

Another issue is over-specialization of jobs, and under-investment by employers in training. Today if you haven't spent 5 years in the same field you can't get hired doing very similar work. You can't even leap over to roughly related jobs (banking to leasing, for example). Employers will pass you by if they have to spend any time at all training you.

So it is quickly creating a "have vs have-not" situation with very specialized jobs paying relatively well, very little true middle class, and a huge segment of the population who could do many jobs but whom corporations see as not worth the time/money to train, so they remain underemployed.

Btw, a college degree today is roughly equivilent to a high school diploma 25 years ago. My wife with 10 years experience in VP level finance, complained her bachelor's degree and even some MBA employees could not write a grammatically coherent memo. Now that she's laid off from her financial services job, she can't get hired without the degree. It could be in basket weaving, but they want that degree. It's a joke. I have that BBA myself and can tell you I learned virtually nothing in college that would prepare me for the stuff she did.

So expect auto sales to continue to slump. Especially higher priced and higher cost to operate type vehicles. Economy cars should do ok. But in real terms the incomes of Americans has steadily decreased for all but the top 5% of earners.

firstwagon - Apr 13, 2008 5:23 pm (#49 Total: 49)

"just because people in your office make $20/hour or better, it doesn't mean others do. "

Actually I don't work in an office, I work for a high tech company.

When I said nobody makes less then $20/ hour, that means most people make a lot more.... and we have 1400 employees locally, over 30,000 worldwide ( I can't claim to know what everyone worldwide makes but our US counterparts make more then we do.)

I make well over $20 and the design engineers and managers I work for make double that or more.

Reading your rant I do understand where you are coming from. I remember when I was last laid off and thought much the same way.

The trick is to find a good employer and make yourself valuable. If things are going no where, don't be afraid to change jobs. Some places are run by morons and they will only drag you down to their level.

I've worked long enough now to know how tough it is to find good people. A good employer will pay for a good employee.