Transition to Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles Is Doable, Experts Report to Congress
Right, the cockpit of Honda's HFCV.
By Scott Doggett, Contributor
A transition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is entirely doable but requires nearly $200 billion in funding and further technological breakthroughs, National Research Council experts said today in a report requested by Congress.
While stressing the "best-case scenario" nature of their report, the experts concluded that hydrogen could be the key driver of a shift away from fossil fuels and emissions tied to global warming, with other clean technologies and biofuels helping in that transition.
"The benefits of hydrogen would be less in the early years but have a dominant effect" in the longer run, panel chairman Mike Ramage, a retired ExxonMobil executive, said in a conference call with reporters. "Hydrogen is a pathway to a sustainable energy future."
The best-case scenario assumes the automotive industry invests $145 billion and the federal government spends $50 billion over the next 15 years to drive down the costs of hydrogen production and vehicles that run on hydrogen.
"The number is big, but in perspective" it is doable, Ramage said, noting that the federal ethanol subsidy is at a pace to cost $160 billion over that same period. "We need durable, substantial and sustainable government help to make this happen, just as there is for ethanol."
2 Million By 2020
With subsidies, the panel noted, some 2 million hydrogen vehicles could be on U.S. roads by 2020. By 2023, fuel cell vehicle costs, including the cost of hydrogen fuel over a vehicle's lifetime, could become competitive with conventional vehicles, the experts added.
After that, hydrogen vehicles could grow rapidly in this best-case scenario -- to nearly 60 million in 2035 and 200 million by 2050.
Ramage emphasized that the panel felt the government should invest in a range of clean energy technologies, not just hydrogen.
"Move them all forward," he said. It's best "not to pick and choose" just one.
The committee also considered whether other technologies might achieve significantly greater reductions in oil imports and carbon-dioxide emissions than hydrogen fuel cell vehicles over the next several decades.
Budget Constrained Study
After considering a range of alternative technologies and the budget constraints of the study, the committee chose to quantitatively evaluate one alternative fuel and one alternative vehicle option: fuels derived from biomass, and evolutionary improvements in internal combustion engines and gas-electric hybrid vehicles.
These alternative fuel and vehicle technologies also will be needed through 2020 to meet the significantly higher fuel economy standards required by the Energy Bill signed last year, the committee determined.
Two other alternative technologies that are likely to contribute to improved U.S. fuel economy are electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, and diesel engines in light-duty vehicles, the panel noted.
However, these options were not evaluated by the committee, both because of resource limitations and because uncertainties in the future costs and consumer acceptance of these technologies were judged to be too great for the committee to have confidence in any assumed penetration rates.
Light-Duty Vehicles Only
For all technologies, the study was restricted to light-duty vehicles -- automobiles and light trucks -- because they represent the bulk of the U.S. vehicle market.
"The main advantage of a transition to [hydrogen fuel cell vehicles] is the potential for reducing the use of oil and emissions of carbon dioxide," the panel said. "Although hydrogen could not replace much gasoline before 2025, the 25 years after that would see a dramatic decline in the use of gasoline in the light-duty vehicle fleet to about one-third of current projections, if the assumptions of the maximum practical case are met.
"Carbon-dioxide emissions will decline almost as much if hydrogen is produced with carbon capture and sequestration or from non-fossil sources."
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- Scott Doggett July 17, 2008, 4:31 PM
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- Alternative Fuels, BMW, Biofuels, Diesel, Emissions, Ethanol, Fuel Cell, Fuel Economy, General Motors, Honda, Hybrid, Hydrogen, Legislation, Mercedes-Benz, Plug-ins and Electric, Toyota, Transportation Alternatives
Incorporating Hydrogen within the world’s energy portfolio will simultaneously reduce dependence on oil while improving the country’s carbon footprint by reducing greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere and spark worldwide economic development. As a representative of the Hydrogen Education Foundation, I am helping people understand that hydrogen is a universal fuel which can be used to store energy and power everything from cars, to laptops, to heating systems for your car. It can be produced from any resource, including many that produce no emissions whatsoever other than water, such as solar, wind, and nuclear.
Although the report suggests that the automotive industry needs to invest $145 billion to reduce the cost of hydrogen vehicle, the fact is that automakers are investing in and working with researchers to develop more efficient hydrogen technologies. For example, Toyota recently released findings about the improved performance of their fuel cell hybrid vehicle: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/06/toyota-fuel-cell-hybrid-vehicle-hydrogen.php. In addition, General Motors is working with consumers by allowing them to test the Equinox, in select markets and at no cost, as part of their “Project Driveway” program.
To learn more about the benefits of hydrogen, we invite everyone to please visit and ask us questions at www.h2andyou.org.
Correct Treehugger link: http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/06/toyota-fuel-cell-hybrid-vehicle-hydrogen.php