If Stars Align, Annual EV Sales Could Hit 3-Million Mark by 2015, Says Analyst
Cheaper Batteries, Lots of Chargers, Government Incentives are Necessary Ingredients
By Danny King, Contributor
The jury's still out on whether battery-electric vehicles will be a luxury or relatively commonplace within the next six years, according to a recent report that finds a lot of uncertainty still exists regarding battery performance characteristics.
Electric cars such as the proposed Tesla Model S could proliferate, but would only trickle into the market without infrastructure development and government support, report says.
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Annual global battery-electric vehicle sales will range from as few as 500,000 to as many as 3 million units by 2015, depending on factors such as how long the cars can run on a single charge and how quickly they recharge, high-tech consultant Strategy Analytics said in its report.
Battery-electric car manufacturers will build about 10,000 units this year, up from 4,000 in 2008, according to the report's author, Kevin Mak, industry analyst of Strategy Analytics' Automotive Electronics Service.
It will take cheaper battery costs that drive electric-car prices closer to their gas-powered counterparts, a comprehensive recharging infrastructure, cars with features such as batteries that may be swapped out, and hefty government incentives for battery-electric vehicle sales to hit that 3 million mark by 2015; without such advances, annual sales will be closer to 500,000 units, Mak said.
"More advances are needed to make recharging faster - battery swap is an alternative approach - and to make more accessible recharging infrastructures, to increase range through greater energy density in batteries, to enhance reliability, and to lower costs to make electric vehicles more affordable to consumers," Mak said.
One thing is certain, though. The number of electric vehicles will grow, even if very slowly.
Companies ranging from larger automakers like Nissan to relative start-ups like Tesla Motors are planning to start selling all-electric vehicles to the U.S. public within the next two years.
Nissan Motor Co. plans to start selling its EV to U.S. fleet customers late next year and has reached an agreement with Japanese electronics giant NEC that will allow production of enough lithium-ion batteries to supply as many as 200,000 hybrid vehicles and electric cars per year.
Meanwhile, Tesla, which last week unveiled the $57,400 (base-price) Model S sedan that it plans to start selling in late 2011, said it has received more than 500 advance orders for the car, which can be equipped with a variety of battery packs good for 160, 220 or 300 miles between charges.
Others with EVs on tap include Miles Electric Vehicles, which is planning to launch its own highway-legal sedan late next year; Mitsubishi Motors, which will start selling a battery-electric city car, the i-MIEV, later this year in Japan; and Subaru, which has said it will sell a limited production EV in Japan in 2010. Several Chinese auto makers also have announced plans for EVs of their own.
Strategy Analytics cited EV battery-charging network developer Better Place as a potential factor in advancing the product enough for mass adoption.
The Silicon Valley-based company is working with Nissan and its partner, Renault, to develop electric cars and a recharging infrastructure for Israel and Denmark, though the car makers may not adopt Better Place's strategy of designing electric cars with swappable battery packs.
- Posted by
- John O'Dell April 9, 2009, 7:20 AM
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- Categories:
- Miles, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Plug-ins and Electric, Renault, Tesla
- Technorati Tags:
- Electric Vehicles, EVs
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