"Study: Oil Prices Will Return to $110/Barrel in 2015, Possibly Hit $200/Barrel in 2030" Green Car Advisor

Study: Oil Prices Will Return to $110/Barrel in 2015, Possibly Hit $200/Barrel in 2030

Yesterday's-Gas-Price.jpg Most Americans likely expect the price of gasoline to one day reach the record highs we saw last summer. The question is not so much will the price soar again, but rather when will it.

According to the Energy Information Administration's 2009 outlook report released today, oil prices will return to $110 per barrel in 2015 and could go up to $200 per barrel in 2030, depending on supply

You'll recall that the nationwide price for a gallon of regular unleaded topped $4 when the barrel price of oil reached $147. But with taxes on gasoline expected to rise, the per-gallon price of gasoline will likely be significantly higher than $4 when the barrel price of oil revisits $147.

World energy consumption - the driving force behind higher gasoline prices - is forecast to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030, the report says, with almost two-thirds of that coming from developing countries and fossil fuels that continue to dominate energy supply.

Developing countries are projected to increase demand by 73 percent by 2030 in the outlook's base reference case - EIA's analysis under current laws and policies - whereas developed countries will grow by 15 percent, the report says.

Liquids, including biofuels, will reportedly continue to be the primary energy source in the world's transportation sector unless there are "significant technological advances" and despite several policy changes.

Unconventional resources such as oil sands and biofuels will become increasingly competitive, accounting for about 13 percent of the world's liquid supply by 2030, according to the report.

The U.S. in particular will see an increase in biofuels, mostly in advanced cellulosic rather than corn-based ethanol, acting Administrator Howard Gruenspecht said at the report's release event in Washington.

World natural gas and coal consumption will also continue to rise, especially in developing countries, the report says. China is expected to triple its coal-fired generating capacity by 2030.

While the EIA report finds renewables are the fastest growing source of electricity, "coal and natural gas still fuel nearly two-thirds of the world electric generation in 2030," the report says.

Gruenspecht also noted that while EIA is still analyzing the current House Energy and Commerce Committee climate bill, the target of cutting 17 percent of carbon dioxide emissions below 2005 levels likely will not significantly alter the EIA's energy outlook.

"One could imagine you could comply with the 2020 proposal of a 17 percent cut just using offsets and not a significant change in use of energy at all," Gruenspecht said. "It doesn't necessarily cause huge changes in projections because a lot of countries are showing a huge energy demand. ... I'm not sure they are as committed to making these changes."

Scott Doggett, Contributor