U.C. Berkeley Study Says Battery Switching Model Would Accelerate EV Acceptance
"It took over sixty years and six generations of gasoline engines for the Chevy Corvette to accelerate from zero to sixty miles per hour in under four seconds. The first version of the Tesla Roadster, which is the world's first Lithium-ion battery powered car, achieved that feat immediately. Whereas earlier generations of electric cars were plagued by poor performance, high cost, and short ranges, a new generation of affordable, high-performance electric cars is about to enter the U.S. market."
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Thus begins a very readable and interesting report commissioned by U.C. Berkeley's Center for Entrepreneurship & Technology entitled, "Electric Vehicles in the United States: A New Model with Forecasts to 2030." Its author is Thomas Becker, a U.C. Berkeley economist who specializes in international and environmental economics.
The paper estimates the rate of market adoption of EVs in the U.S. through 2030 and analyzes the impact of electric-car deployment on the trade balance, business investment, employment, health care costs and greenhouse-gas emissions. And, the paper forecasts three electric-vehicle adoption scenarios based on two oil price scenarios and possible purchase price incentives for electric cars.
Before moving on to a summary of the paper, there are some things we feel you ought to know about it. In response to a query from Green Car Advisor, the university acknowledged that Better Place - a huge advocate of electric vehicles in general and the major proponent of battery switching technology in particular - helped fund the program that conducted the study, which found that the U.S. can greatly benefit from EVs and battery switching.
The study's premise is that electric vehicles would be sold without batteries at a cost similar to conventional gasoline or diesel cars, and the batteries would be leased at a cost approximating the monthly cost of gasoline for a conventional vehicle.
That is a big part of Better Place's business model. The company envisions itself as a major battery leasing enterprise and operator of quick-change battery swapping stations.
We queried the university and Better Place after both issued reports Monday that shed an attractive light on electric vehicles. The timing of the reports seemed coordinated; the university and Better Place denied that the same release date was anything more than a coincidence. Click on "5-Nation Survey by Electric Vehicle Backer Shows Strong Consumer Interest in EVs" to read our piece on the report issued by Better Place.
Now, without further adieu, click on the "Continue reading" button, below, to read a summary of the U.C. Berkeley study.
Electric Car Sales
In the baseline forecast electric cars account for 64 percent of U.S. light-vehicle sales by 2030 and comprise 24 percent of the U.S. light-vehicle fleet. The rates of adoption are driven by the low purchase price and operating costs of electric cars with switchable batteries. The estimates include the cost of installing charging and battery switching infrastructure to extend the range of electric vehicles.
Lower Oil Imports
U.S oil imports in 2030 under the electric-vehicle deployment scenarios are projected to be 18 percent to 38 percent lower than the scenario of improved internal combustion engine fuel effciency, equivalent to 2.0 million to 3.7 million barrels per day. For reference, the U.S. in 2008 imported 2.3 million barrels per day from the Persian Gulf.
Improved Trade Deficit
The U.S. imported $400 billion of petroleum in 2008, which accounted for 59 percent of the trade deficit. This paper estimates that electric-car adoption lowers the annual trade deficit by between $94 billion and $266 billion by 2030 over a scenario of improved internal combustion engine fuel effciency.
New Sources of Investment
Business investment in a domestic battery-manufacturing industry and the deployment of a battery charging infrastructure grows to account for between 1.1 percent and 1.5 percent of total U.S. business investment by 2030. With additional investment in battery manufacturing, the U.S. has the potential to become an exporter of automotive batteries.
Higher Overall Employment
There is a net employment gain of between 130,000 and 350,000 jobs by 2030. New jobs are created in the battery-manufacturing industry and in the construction, operation, and maintenance of a domestic charging infrastructure network. The job gains outweigh modeled job losses among gas station attendants, mechanics, and parts industry manufacturers.
Health-Care Cost Savings
Health-care cost savings stem from lower emissions of airborne pollutants. The net present value of the health impact of electric-vehicle deployment to 2030 is between $105 billion and $210 billion when vehicles are charged using non-polluting sources of electricity. Health-care cost savings remain positive when electric vehicles are charged using the current electricity grid.
Reduced Greenhouse-Gas Emissions
When powered by non-polluting sources of electricity, EV deployment results in a 20 percent to 69 percent decline in 2030 greenhouse-gas emissions from U.S. light-vehicles over 2005 levels. Emissions are 8 percent to 47 percent lower when electric vehicles are charged using the present electricity grid with its mix of power generated primarily by coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants.
- Posted by
- Scott Doggett July 15, 2009, 1:01 AM
- Permalink
- Categories:
- Batteries, Chevrolet, Emissions, Fuel Economy, Mass Transit, Plug-ins and Electric, Tax Incentives, Tesla
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- Batteries, Battery, Chevrolet, Electric Vehicles, EV. EVs, Lithium-ion, Plug-In Electric Vehicle, Tesla, U.C. Berkeley
Wow - Berkely advocating electric vehicles. Shocking.