We just posted a story on the next Toyota Prius at AutoObserver.com. It's an interesting look at what Toyota is planning for perhaps the most influential car in the company's recent history. You can read the full details in the story, but the main points are as follows:
1. Toyota will be launching the "first" next Prius in 2009; it will be slightly larger than the current model
2. The "second" new Prius will be much larger than the current car, similar in design to the Hybrid X concept, and launch in 2010
3. The "third" new Prius will be smaller than the current model, similar in size to the Corolla, and launch in 2011.
It's also worth noting that the new models are going to use nickel-metal hydride batteries, not lithium-ion.
This strategy makes a couple of points clear. First, Toyota is willing to dump a big chunk of money into R&D for its next generation of hybrid offerings. It also indicates a real commitment to making hybrids a central part of the company's future product plan, despite continued questions about just how environmentally friendly hybrids really are (when total production lifecycle and materials are taken into account). Finally, the use of nickel-metal hydride confirms ongoing concerns about the potential of large scale lithium-ion battery production. Apparently lithium isn't the most readily available material, with a good chunk of world's supply located in...China!
Toyota's future hybrid plans are particularly intriguing in the face of a recent J.D. Power study that suggests consumer interest in hybrids is dropping as expectations for improved real-world mileage is rising.
So, the question seems to be -- Can Toyota increase the availability and effectiveness of hybrid technology to a level that justifies a hybrid's purchase versus a traditional combustion engine? And don't forget, the Europeans are about to charge into the U.S. market with a wave of high-mileage diesels. The answer will likely come down to cost. If Toyota produces all those hybrids in the next four years they will spread the cost of R&D across a large number of vehicles, likely keeping the increased cost-per-vehicle low.
Or perhaps Toyota's status as the World's Largest Automaker will be brief and go down in a blaze of expensive hybrids that nobody buys because comparable diesels are cheaper and get better mileage.
What say you?
By guy1974
on July 17, 2007
06:19 AM
Toyota will have to work hard as the Europeans have many good diesle engines and the prestigious brands (BMW, MB, Audi etc) will help improve the image of diesel. Other people will come to appreciate the extra torque, improved fuel economy and on occasion the cheaper cost of a gallon of diesel compared to gas which combined with better fuel economy will certainly make diesel a cost effective auto.
By miniharryc
on July 17, 2007
07:00 AM
@guy--which brings-up an obvious question: Why doesn't someone create a diesel-electric hybrid?
I mean, Nissan licensed the Hybrid Synergy Drive wholesale to create the Altima hybrid--why couldn't VW do the same thing?
By heffling
on July 17, 2007
07:07 AM
There are diesel electric hybrids that I've read about. However, there are more technical issues to address with a diesel-electric or even using the cylinder shut-down technology for highway cruising, because of how a diesel engine works.
In a traditional gas engine, you have spark plugs to act as the ignition source. In a diesel, you use compression to increase the temperature of the gas to an ignition point. Typically in your start up cycle, you will have to use glow plugs or some sort of a heating element until your engine block is retaining enough heat to aid in the combustion process.
In a hybrid or cylinder deactiviation scenario, you're giving up some of your generated heat, thus reducing your overall gain, as you will have to reclaim this heat to operate efficiently.
By brett8210
on July 17, 2007
07:25 AM
Heffling
Agree 100%
You beat me to it.
By dbt
on July 17, 2007
07:33 AM
Comment on another topic: Where is Edmunds.com's monthly True Cost of IncentivesSM (TCISM)?
Karl,
I frequently see references to "Edmunds.com"'s TCISM [including references by Edmunds' own Autoobserver, see http://www.autoobserver.com/2007/07/incentives-mini.html ], but cannot find it anywhere on Edmunds.com. Yesterday, in AutoNews, there was a reference to incentive spending by Honda, "Honda still doesn't offer cash rebates to customers and says it doesn't plan to. But the division is cranking up dealer incentives and lease subsidies like never before. In June, its average payout per vehicle was $1,221, according to Edmunds.com". I'm guessing this was a reference to the TCISM, but I don't know for sure. What I know is that I have not found this information on Edmunds.com.
Where are these reports?
Thanks.
By phinneas519
on July 17, 2007
07:49 AM
Even if diesels offer similar benefits at a lower price point, this hybrid-diesel battle isn't entirely about practicality. It's primarily about image.
We all know that diesel suffered from, and continues to suffer from (albeit less in the days of expensive gas) poor perception. Everyone seems reluctant to let go of the memories of those old, dirty, loud diesels from decades ago.
On the other hand, hybrids are seen as the car of choice for those who care about the environment. And those who have been keeping up to date know that environmentalism is the new black. Although there is a price premium in the cost of hybrids over comparable cars, paying that extra bit serves a few purposes that makes hybrids desireable:
1.) Perceived, though not realistic, gas savings.
2.) The "I care about my environment and my kids" factor in regard to conservation and pollution reduction.
3.) It costs more. A hybrid owner must be better off than most other car owners due to the previously mentioned price premium.
It also doesn't hurt that a company that spends R&D dollars on hybrids gets a really nice image boost.
All of these things help maintain and expand the hybrids' image cachet which Toyota fully intends to bank on, judging by their plans for hybrid development.
By carlisimo
on July 17, 2007
08:01 AM
While not on the scale of hybrid costs, diesels aren't cheap either, especially with all the new emissions controls on them. Mostly because of the turbos, I'd guess. And they still sound and smell funny, imo. Besides, it's mostly the Germany luxury automakers that are talking about diesels; not a huge overlap in target markets.
I think the Prius was hurt by the flaws in the old EPA test and the legal requirement that Toyota use those figures in its advertising. But it's even worse in Japan. Remember those rumors that the next generation Prius would get 90+ mpg? Well, in the Japanese mileage test cycle the current Prius gets something in the 80s... so basically a 10-15% improvement, nothing more.
As long as they keep the formula of offering subcompact mileage with premium car ownership experience (uniqueness, nice interior, fancy displays) I think they'll be fine.
By guy1974
on July 17, 2007
08:20 AM
I agree it is the premium makes that are starting the diesel push, with the exception of VW who are also trying. I would say that having the premium brands start first improves the image such that resistance to diesel is reduced and the more mass market brands can start selling diesels.
All manufacturers have diesel engines ready and waiting because they all sell large numbers in Europe. Ford, GM, Honda, Nissan etc so if the Germans succeed then other companies can quickly and cheaply follow - since the R&D is done (for this generation of diesel engines)
By 1487
on July 17, 2007
09:02 AM
There some issues with diesels and upcoming emissions regulations. We have some strict emissions rules here and I believe they are scheduled to get tougher soon. I don't even know if current diesels can meet the existing CA and NE states emissions standards. Basically the technology required to make diesels compliant with new standards will make them even more expensive and thus making them less than an ideal choice vs hybrids.
By blueguydotcom
on July 17, 2007
09:05 AM
I'm anxiously awaiting BMW and Honda's diesel engines. Hybrids...torn as the tax credit makes them more attractive. If one drives 15k miles a year and gets a tax credit over 2k, then the price premium is worth it. But the performance penalty is huge.
For me though, driving fun comes over practicality, so I'd gladly pay extra for a diesel that doesn't give me a tax credit. A Bimmer/Honda diesel with ample torque and the legit ability to net 40 mpg on freeway drives would get my attention before any hybrid.
By mirth
on July 17, 2007
09:33 AM
Toyota will price these cars on the high-end but competitively, because they can afford to lose money on them in the short-term. They are smartly positioning themselves for the inenvitable rise in fuel costs. Since they have more expertise in hybrids than in deisels, they're going with hybrids. I can't fault their strategy.
By mr_shiftright
on July 17, 2007
09:56 AM
If Toyota's new hybrids are plug-ins, they will definitely win out over the new generation diesels; if they aren't, then it's a matter of how oil companies will manipulate the cost of diesel fuel vs. gasoline.
Diesel cars have their drawbacks. They are hardly a perfect solution and don't offer much advantage over a gasoline car. Europe uses them primarily because of the price differential from gasoline, and because of the tax structure.
By editor_karl
on July 17, 2007
10:00 AM
Don't forget that electric motors and diesels engines share one common characteristic -- low-end torque. This makes their pairing not quite as naturally appealing as a gas-electric hybrid pairing, but proper gearing and tuning should/could still bring them together effectively.
By rick8365
on July 17, 2007
11:11 AM
I for one still don't think these hybrids in there current configuration are the answer - not by any stretch a flash in the pan, but not a viable longer term answer either.
There have been some diesel hybrids already - I think Opel had one that got 60 or 80 MPG. I don't really know what the drawbacks were or are - the ones mentioned by others above do seem like potential hurdles. It may be reaching a bit but isn't a diesel locomotive a hybrid of a different kind....a diesel engine that generates electricity for a solely electric drive system? I don't think that they use batteries at all, although in a scaled down auto application the batteries could store energy that is generated during deceleration etc. The diesel could throttle up and down "independently" as necessary to supply the proper voltage/amperage. I believe I read that there is a company working on a diesel electric tug boat - I would guess modeled after the locomotive technology as well.
As I've said before, I'm all for the diesel (hybrid or not) becoming prevalent in our market but I've had a thought similar to someone above....I hope the oil companies don't have a motive and a way to manipulate the prices to ruin what I see as almost certain success of the diesel here this time around. One potential safeguard against this is the diesel's ability to run on multiple fuels. If the price of diesel fuel goes through the roof there could / should be a viable alternative fuel market.
By heffling
on July 17, 2007
11:28 AM
The reason that a diesel-electric powertrain is used in railroad applications is because of vibrations. If you directly hook the large diesel up to your drivetrain, you will literally shake the railcars to pieces. The electrical generator and motor act to smooth this out and provide a consistant power application.
By editor_karl
on July 17, 2007
12:28 PM
"Comment on another topic: Where is Edmunds.com's monthly True Cost of IncentivesSM (TCISM)?"
Sorry for the confusion dbt. Every month Edmunds' pricing gurus do an analysis of the industry's incentive and pricing trends. They subsequently release a monthly report that consumers and other publications can use to see what's gone on over the previous 30 days. Here's the page with the latest report:
http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/121531/article.html
And if you check back on this page regularly you should find the reports around the 1st of each month:
http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/index.html
Hope this helps.
By dbt
on July 17, 2007
02:37 PM
Karl,
That's very helpful. This is very useful information that you collect.
Now I know where you look.
Thanks a bunch.
By blackadder5639
on July 17, 2007
04:01 PM
I second dbt! Karl, this post has been extremely informative. Thanks!!!! :)
By 210delray
on July 17, 2007
07:25 PM
For anyone thinking about the "alleged" tax credit for hybrids, it's just that: alleged. If you're married and making a halfway decent income (I'm still talking middle class), the Alternative Minimum Tax will rear its ugly head and bite off the tax credits you thought you were getting!
This is because the ALT has a high built-in "marriage penalty" that's not present in the "regular" tax most people pay. Single people are more likely to be able to get the full credit though.
So check with your tax adviser before you buy!