It's time I admit it publicly -- I'm worried about the Tesla Roadster. Just last week a story by Automotive News' Mark Rechtin covered the latest delay in the electric Roadster's on-sale date, now scrubbed from late summer 2007 to fourth-quarter 2007. This announcement comes only a week after an announcement that the company's co-founder, Martin Eberhard, had "stepped down" from the post of CEO. Our own investigations have suggested the move was meant to free up Eberhard from the rigors of running the company and allow him to get back to the business of producing the car. An awfully good explanation...almost too good.
Add to these developments a slip in the vehicle's promised range, from 250 miles per charge to "over 200 miles" as well as a bump in the vehicle's price, from $92,000 to $98,000, and I find myself asking some serious questions. Questions like: When will the car really arrive? What will the car really cost? How far will it really travel on a single charge?
When Tesla first announced its goal of producing a 250-mile, all-electric roadster with a zero-to-60 time of 4.0 seconds and a price tag of $92,000 it seemed to have all the right ingredients to make this dream a reality. These ingredients included a "Silicon Valley-based" approach to personal transportation not shackled by the "old-school" way of making cars. With financial backing from the same folks who brought us Google and eBay it certainly seemed anything was possible.
And while I'm a long way from using the "B" word here (Bricklin) I am having the same thoughts I have when someone raises the "100-mile carburetor" or "40 mpg Suburban" question. My answer to them is the same one I might offer Eberhard -- if it was really possible everyone would be doing it. But I have a feeling Eberhard already knows it's "not easy" to make a car with Tesla's original stated specs. And even if the costs go up, the range goes down and the introduction comes late I hope we see a Tesla Roadster in showrooms soon.
But I am worried. Are you?
By rob052067
on August 21, 2007
09:18 AM
I don't think there's going to be a groudswell of worry about this one. So a few celebrities don't get to buy their $100K electric bling. Oh, Poo Poo.
By itsallmuscle
on August 21, 2007
10:03 AM
This car seems like an incredible inconvenience to me. Can we really expect people to travel less than 200 miles per day? You can't take this car on a long drive, or a vacation from lets say NYC to Atlantic City...
So its pretty, and its fast... but it has cheetah syndrome..
I would be much more interested if it was capable of full battery power, and somehow capable of using gasoline as well. Not so much like a hybrid where they are used simultaneously, but rather separate systems that wouldn't use gasoline unless there was no charge left.
No AAA to bring you a gallon of gas if you stop in the middle of no where with this one.
___________________________
In the event this car wasn't mean to be used that way, why put it in production and not just use it as a "prototype" or a display of technology? If this is meant to be purchased by consumers, it should be more consumer friendly..
By mittelhauser
on August 21, 2007
10:10 AM
Karl,
I am unable to see Mark Rechtin's article but the fact that you characterize it as "the latest delay" tells me that it is not a fair characterization of what has happened. Let's be clear. Many people have tried to imply that there have been mulitiple schedule changes but this is not accurate. There has been a *single* delay in the expected delivery date of the Roadster. This was due to the difficult decision to change out the transmission for reliability issues (which also resulted in the decreased range). Believe me, I know. I am #76 on the list and I have been tracking the progress very closely. I think the automotive press is spoiled by only dealing with huge car comanies who are make incremental changes to existing systems and underestimate the scope and difficulty of what Tesla is trying to accomplish. Frankly, I am amazed at any startup who has accomplished as much as they have without *more* schedule slips.
Speaking as a customer, the key to me not "being worried" is the transparency that the company brings to the process. We were always told that the original estimate was only an estimate. It was explained to us why the change was made and the resulting schedule impact. And currently it has been clearly communicated to us what remains before production cars see the light of day.
As for the cost going up, blame it on the weak dollar versus to pound. Remember that the Roadster is assembled by Lotus. Not to mention, that the demand is there so they can justify the price increase.
As for Martin stepping aside, this has been way overblown. It is the sign of a GOOD startup when the founders realize that the company has gotten to big for them to manage and they step aside.
In the next month or two, the automotive press will be getting their hands on the car and I think you'll start to see the excitment boil over. At some point in Q1, I will (hopefully) have my car and I'll be too busy driving round to read automotive blogs. :)
I understand that nobody (myself included) will be satisfied until the cars acually ship. However, to answer your question: no I am not worried.
-Jon
By mittelhauser
on August 21, 2007
10:21 AM
itsallmuscle,
1) You are correct. It isn't designed as a roadtrip car. So what? With a 200 mile range, it still handles 98% of my driving needs. It isn't like any of the 600 people who ordered a Roadster so far don't have access to another car. Do you really think people who are spending $100k on a sportscar don't have multiple cars?
2) Why can't I drive from NYC to Atlantic City? That is only about 125 miles. What they don't have electricty in Atlantic City for a recharge? :)
3) Your suggestion of adding a gas system misses a key point of an electric car. One of the key benefits of an electric car is that you get to get rid of all of the complex (and often unreliable) aspects of an ICE. No fuel line pumps, no oil, go spark plus, no timing issues, etc, etc. Your need for AAA goes WAY down.
-Jon
By mirth
on August 21, 2007
10:39 AM
I think this just goes to show that, despite what "Who Killed the Electric Car?" and the "Union of Concerned Scientists who know nothing about Manufacturing" might say, it's really, really hard to build a road-legal electric car.
By itsallmuscle
on August 21, 2007
10:59 AM
Mittelhauser,
I appreciate your comments with regards to the complication of the fuel system.
I certainly assumed this wasn't a daily driver, but I figured people would drive it on sunny days. The problem is, I see it as an "around town" car. You really can't go much further.
Where would you charge it in Atlantic City? Outlets aren't so easy to find outside, and how many places would let you charge such a heavy piece of machinery (I am saying this under the assumption most people will believe this car will take an exorbitant amount of electricity.)
125 miles down is accurate, but imagine the mental burden of finding a place that will let you charge it, making sure it works etc. The problem is also the time it takes to charge. 2 hours at "half a tank" is still a good amount of time. Maybe not at Atlantic City if you are doing something, but if you come back to the car and its unplugged...
I can appreciate the car for what it is, a high performance, battery powered work of art, but it is so impractical, it doesn't make sense to me to make it a consumer vehicle. Even at just around town, you can't go too far. Figure at BEST a 100 mile radius... and you can't dilly dally around too much.. It has to be direct there direct back.. Back to the mental burden, your mind will CONSTANTLY be on your battery gauge.. wondering if you can make the distance... One of the most uncomfortable feelings is being on a long strip of highway when you realize your gas tank is on E...
By mittelhauser
on August 21, 2007
11:16 AM
itsallmuscle said:
"Even at just around town, you can't go too far. Figure at BEST a 100 mile radius... and you can't dilly dally around too much.. It has to be direct there direct back."
Jeez. How big is your town!? :) I only drive more than 200 miles in a given day maybe 2-3 times a year and it is always a planned trip. The Roadster will be a daily driver for me and many of the other owners that I have talked with.
I wasn't trying to make light of the issue of finding a place to charge the car in Atlantic City. You are correct that this isn't trivial today. However, compared to other alternative fuel systems (e.g. hydrogen), adding an electrical charging system is trivial. Tesla is working with hotel chains (which would include casinos I presume) to create this infrastructure. Here in CA, they even have gotten some government funding to help create that infrastrcture.
You are correct that *today* the roadster isn't perfect for everyone. But it is an exciting starting place. Batteries get better every year, infrastructure gets built, etc, etc...
-Jon
By ricketts22
on August 21, 2007
11:23 AM
hmm... if the car doesn't go quite as far, and they charge more for it, isn't it possible they're just trying to maximize profits? The car already has a waiting list. A 20% drop in range might seem like a big deal but this was never meant as a cross country cruiser, that could mean 20% savings on the battery packs. Another 6 grand isn't a deal breaker for someone that was already prepared to spend 92K. That could reflect demand as much or more than cost.
These Silicon Valley guys may be new at making cars but they are old pros at making money.
By mcrunfast
on August 21, 2007
12:09 PM
I view this car like a tech demo. It's the very. very first run of some new technology. It's not gonna be an all around car, or in any way practical. It's something to show off to your friends every now and then, and to show off to other people that 'it can be done'. The reduction in specs doesn't worry me too much, it's still gonna do what it set out to do: show that a production electric car can be made with performance in mind, instead of mundane economy cars. I'm more hoping this car kicks off trends in electric vehicles/engines to angle them towards the performance segment. A future where hybrid isn't associated with awful acceleration, poor handling, and pathetic power. A WRX/Mazdaspeed with a hybrid/plug-in hybrid motor in it? Sign me up. Thats whats keeping me away from a lot of those alternatives right now. I like driver's cars, not commuter's cars.
Anyway, my hopes aren't for the Tesla to succeed in and of itself, I hope that it kicks off a trend for electric, or hybrid electric systems start beefing up their performance. The Altima hybrid is also a ray of hope in this.
By anythngbutgm
on August 21, 2007
01:02 PM
Is it possible that Mr Eberhard has his eye on the challenges that the Volt and plug in Prius are having with finding a reliable battery source? He could be delaying appropriately based on what happens there and he could be raising the price based on a predicted increase those other two face to get the technology on the ground.
That is one sexy roadster...
By autoboy16
on August 21, 2007
05:06 PM
actually, i'm more worried about smart cars. Are they selling yet? I've yet to see any! I hope tesla does manage to get a good dealer network.
-Cj
By savetheland
on August 21, 2007
05:29 PM
I do not drive more than 70 miles daily. So I could drive this thing for three days. 200 miles is a lot. In case I need to go to LA I always can rent a car. Or AAA can bring fresh battery pack.
I read how Benz wife drove something like 30 miles with many stops to repair car, add engine coolant (in Benz car water was simply evaporating instead of circulating) and so on. Compared with early ICE cars modern electric cars are almost perfect daily drivers.
Needless to say that Silicon valey is much more profit oriented, has best engineers from all the world and management skills superior to what you can get in Detroit.
By texases
on August 21, 2007
05:43 PM
Here's hoping, but if someone told me several years ago that someone was going to build a Tesla type car for $100K, I would not (and do not) consider it some amazing breakthrough. The costs that dictate the $100k price are not suddenly going to change to result in a $20k car. Batteries are expensive, and the presence of the Tesla is a minor factor in their development, along with the expensive body, engine, etc.
By anythngbutgm
on August 22, 2007
05:14 AM
200 miles on a single charge is impressive when you look at something like the Volt that only goes 40...
By texases
on August 22, 2007
06:59 AM
'Volt that only goes 40...'
That's because it's a hybrid.
By pf_flyer
on August 22, 2007
09:13 AM
EV's are starting to look like they're stuck in the "expensive toy" or "amazing concept vehicle" cubbyholes, with no way out short of some breakthrough on the battery technology side.
http://www.carspace.com/blogs/AlternateRoute/Theres-a-race
By blackadder5639
on August 22, 2007
09:21 AM
I agree with anythingbutgm, mcrunfast and mittelhauser. 200 miles is HUGE for a city car. Sure, the Tesla Roadster would be a poor long-distance car but I think as an everyday take-to-work-or-school car it's perfect for those who can afford it. (Of course, students can't afford it....) Sure, it's currently too expensive for the fuel savings to be meaningful, but the aim of this Roadster is to showcase the technology; it's not meant to make much financial sense as an investment.
Hopefully, as Tesla gets more money, they would be able to improve the technology, especially range and (shorter) charging times, and make it cheaper.
I think that, eventually, higher-end luxury/sport cars could benefit from this technology. Imagine it were coupled with a traditional ICE to form a hybrid (so that the car could be used for longer trips).......or that solar cells on the roof would charge it.......the possibilities are endless!
By anythngbutgm
on August 22, 2007
09:24 AM
oooh, great idea with the solar cells... :thumbup:
By carlisimo
on August 22, 2007
09:33 AM
It does sound like a Silicon Valley company - in more than just the good ways. But it's a great and perfectly legitimate way of funding EV R&D.
And take it from me, roadsters aren't great for 200mi trips even if they can do it...
By mnorm1
on August 22, 2007
09:45 AM
Rich man's toy for ego gratification.
Great if you got the money. I don't, so I'm not worried about it at all.
By the way with the changing delivery dates and changing specs; Is Caroll Shelby involved?
By editor_karl
on August 22, 2007
10:26 AM
"Imagine it were coupled with a traditional ICE to form a hybrid (so that the car could be used for longer trips)......."
You mean like the LS 600h? That vehicle proved that if you spend a lot of money and add a lot of weight you can...just about equal the performance and mpg of a standard ICE powertrain, like in the LS 460.
By blackadder5639
on August 22, 2007
11:42 AM
No Karl, I was thinking something more along the lines of the Chevy Volt: the ICE would be a weak one (maybe a lightweight 1.3 L or smaller engine) that would mainly work to charge the batteries, perhaps only when the batteries are weak (and there is no accessible power outlet nearby). Thus, the car wouldn't need the ICE at all for in-town use, but only for long trips.
Basically, this ICE would serve as an on-board generator.
By editor_karl
on August 22, 2007
01:12 PM
I agree, that's the application that holds the most promise. GM is supposedly moving very quickly (and with solid success) on making the Volt a reality. Let's hope it works!
By editor_karl
on August 22, 2007
02:03 PM
I just finished a great discussion with Darryl Siry, VP of Marketing, Sales and Service at Tesla Motors. I first have to thank Mr. Siry publicly for both reading the blog and taking the time to respond with a phone call. We discussed several elements relating to the Tesla Roadster, but they boiled down to the following major themes:
1. Vehicle Range: It's clear Mr. Siry wants Tesla to avoid the pitfalls of certain past electric cars by accurately managing expectations. By reducing the vehicle's claimed range (from 250 miles to over 200 miles) he now feels confident that both buyers and automotive reviewers will be satified with the Roadster's range in real-world testing (a major failing of GM's EV1, which claimed a 60 - 90 mile range but rarely delivered it -- at least not on the initial models).
2. Cost Increase: Tesla announced the cost of the Roadster very early in the car's development. As you may or may not know, most car companies won't relase pricing until a car is just about to hit showrooms (sometimes it seems like Japanese companies won't even release pricing then!). Because a good chunk of the car comes from England the shift in currency exchange rates over the past 18 months has been one of many factors affecting the Roadster's cost. These are both excellents points raised by Mr. Siry.
3. Delay: Tesla's attitude is do it right, even if it means doing it later than originally planned. Nobody likes delays, but I've always felt that going to market with products not fully sorted (for more on this, see Microsoft) serves neither the customer nor the manufacturer. Can't argue with Tesla's attitude on this one.
4. Tesla's long-term plan: Where will Tesla be in 10 years? I hadn't given it much thought before talking to Mr. Siry, but he made a convincing argument that the company sees its role as far beyond that of "waking up the industry to electric vehicle potential." You could argue they've already succeeded in that (GM fast-tracking the Chevy Volt was undeniably influenced by Tesla), but it appears Tesla wants to be more than just a mechanism for social and industrial change. Mr. Siry says the company sees itself as a long-term player in the future of personal transportation.
5. Parts sharing and cost: I was not aware of this (if you've been following the Tesla Roadster closely maybe you were), but less than 20 percent of the car comes from the Lotus Elise. The front structure and IP are examples where Tesla borrowed heavily from Lotus to keep costs down, but the majority of the car is unique to the Roadster. News to me, and good to know.
Make of this information what you will, but certainly it addes to my understanding of the car and the deviations from its originally stated specs.
Thanks again Mr. Siry!
By firstwagon
on August 23, 2007
05:24 PM
I've read everything I could find about the Tesla since I first heard about it and things that worry me are..
Real world range. All their numbers about cost, enviromental impact, battery life revolve around getting more then 200 miles on a charge. Judging from past electic cars, I'm now of the "I've believe it when I see it" mindset.
Cost of power. All the predications I've seen for the cost of electricity show large increases of the next few years as more clean sources are used. The charger for this car sucks back juice big time. I'd like to see a real cost comparision between the Tesla and the 1.8 L Lotus it's based on.
Real world battery life. When I bought my cell phone 2 years ago, it would go a week on a charge. Now I have to charge it every day. It's just the way it is with batteries. Tesla claims 100,000 miles but once again I'll believe it when I see it.
I really like the idea of electric cars but every example I have seen hasn't come close to living up to it's marketing hype in the real world.
Looking forward to being proved wrong but not holding my breath.
By firstwagon
on August 28, 2007
08:23 AM
"actually, i'm more worried about smart cars. Are they selling yet? I've yet to see any! I hope tesla does manage to get a good dealer network.
-Cj"
Smarts are doing great in Canada. They only expected to sell 2000/year and are now up to 10,000 in less then 2 years.
http://www.canadiandriver.com/news/070828-1.htm
By SubyTrojan
on December 2, 2007
07:37 PM
What really happened to Martin Eberhard?
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php?t=756&page=2