In case you haven't noticed, fuel prices have dropped recently. Some would call the latest price drops a drop in the bucket (why do I have trouble getting excited over gas costing "only" $4.33 a gallon in Los Angeles?), but a price reduction of 5 percent over the past two weeks is better than the constant gas price hikes we've seen since early spring.
However, as with most things, there are two sides to this reduction in coin. Specifically, as the price of fuel drops so does the advantage of hybrid powertrains over traditional gasoline versions.
Edmunds has been tracking the "pay-off time" for hybrids versus their closest equivalent, non-hybrid counterparts for that last few months, and it's interesting to note how a swing in fuel prices can impact this figure.
For instance, on June 12 the figures looked like this:
Toyota Prius versus Toyota Camry (non-hybrid) pay-off time: 4.0 years
Honda Civic Hybrid versus Civic pay-off time: 6.1 years
Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid versus Malibu pay-off time: 9.5 years
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid versus Tahoe pay-of time: 13.8 years
Lexus LS 600h Hybrid versus LS 460L pay-off time: 85.2 years
But on Monday (July 28th) those same figures looked like this:
Toyota Prius versus Toyota Camry (non-hybrid) pay-off time: 4.4 years
Honda Civic Hybrid versus Civic pay-off time: 7.5 years
Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid versus Malibu pay-off time: 9.7 years
Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid versus Tahoe pay-of time: 17.0 years
Lexus LS 600h Hybrid versus LS 460L pay-off time: 96.2 years
Because the national average price for a gallon of gas went down between June 12 ($4.10 a gallon) and July 28 ($3.95 a gallon) it takes longer to make up the hybrid price premium based on today's fuel prices. But other changing factors, such as the vehicle's True Market Value (TMV) and hybrid tax credits caused a wide variation in the pay-off time between models. Note how the Malibu Hybrid's time remained essentially unchanged, but the Tahoe Hybrid went up by approximately 20 percent (I haven't yet calculated what gas would have to cost for the LS 600h to make financial sense...).
But my primary point remains -- when gas prices drop (normally seen as a good thing) so does the "value" of hybrid technology.
By dougtheeng
on July 30, 2008
06:11 AM
This blog assumes people who buy a hybrid actually run these numbers prior to purchase. I'd wager that the majority of the purchasers do nothing more then compare EPA sticker estimate on the windshield of the hybrid vs non hybrid.
And then there is the other crowd, those who are willing to pay more to make a statement/reduce carbon footprint/reduce dependence on foreign oil/brag to their friends about how environmentally conscious they are. Again, I am guessing these crowds do not crunch the numbers.
For these people, the appeal of a hybrid is the same as the appeal of a 600HP rwd sports car to the rest of us; it may not make financial sense, but its what they desire and find attractive in a vehicle.
So, in conclusion, I don't think the "payoff time" for a hybrid in $4.50 gas, or $4.00 gas is particularly relevant.
By syke
on July 30, 2008
06:12 AM
Of course the price of gas is fluctuating. Little matter of supply and demand, Joe Average American starts driving less, demand goes down, price drops to match.
Just the same, there's no way that the price is ever going to drop back to $1.98/gallon again, so the incentive to buy and drive a fuel efficient automobile will still stay high. This time, hopefully, people will be ready for the next gas spike (say, $5.00/gallon - no, I'm not going to try and predict when, just secure in the knowledge that it will eventually happen), and be driving something that actually gives 30+ mpg in the real world, day after day.
What this downturn may be good for is bringing back a bit of sanity in hybrid prices. Been following the comic strip "Cathy" lately?
By blueguydotcom
on July 30, 2008
06:34 AM
It's dependent on area, for certain. Last weekend I drove the 2009 Jetta TDI. I'm comparing it to 2 other cars:
Clubman S - 29 mpg combined, premium gas. 15k miles / 29 mpg * 4.60 a gallon = $2380. MSRP 29.3k
GTI 4 door - 25 mpg combined, premium gas. 15k miles / 25 mpg * 4.60 = $2760. MSRP 23k.
Jetta TDI - 37 mpg combined, diesel. 15k miles / 37 mpg * $5.10 = 2067. 23k MSRP (plus 1300 tax credit, or for us about a $5000 tax write off).
The Jetta TDI (which is the same as the Jetta SE model 2.5 with a 21k sticker) returns $300 to 700 a year better fuel consumption immediately, plus the car is cheaper out of the gate than the other two new vehicles I'm considering. Pay off time = immediate.
But honestly, is surrendering fun worth even a $1000 a year difference? That's questionable for me. But the car's savings is undeniable for me.
By altimadude00
on July 30, 2008
07:27 AM
I think people look at the annual fuel savings of a hybrid/more fuel efficient car rather than the "payoff time." These days people don't spend a lot of time looking ahead years down the road. They're more focused on, "Can I make it through the month with my head above water?" As long as they are paying less per month on fuel, they are happy. The pay-off doesn't matter.
By yankeez
on July 30, 2008
08:04 AM
C'mon, I think we all know that most people who are buying up these hybrids do it for the "warm fuzzy" feeling they get knowing they're doing "their part" to save gas, save the planet, look good for their liberal associations, whatever.
I'd submit to you that 90% or more of the people who buy a Prius, for example, do it to make a political statement more than anything. The fact that it gets good MPG and looks like something out of "The Jetsons" is only an added bonus to these people.
By blueguydotcom
on July 30, 2008
08:43 AM
I agree with Yankeez. I know many Prius owners - they're all old or really environmental or both. I've yet to see a young, oil executive, conservative hotty driving a Prius. I'm sure one or two might exist but they're as rare as a camaro driver lacking a mullet.
By carlisimo
on July 30, 2008
08:45 AM
I agree. It's like how most of us here like the warm fuzzy feeling of having a lot of power in reserve, or the special advantages of RWD that we never actually use (drifters excepted). Hybrid buyers aren't buying appliances, they're buying on emotion.
By blueguydotcom
on July 30, 2008
09:19 AM
Carlismo, good point. They're buying what the marketing people can't always sell to people: an idea of how the car will improve the buyer's life. As some here are focused on power, size, national origin, sheetmetal, the hybrid buyer is focused on that idea of making a positive difference (real or not).
I'm cheap and love technology so the frugal side and my inner geek come together and whisper hybrids are sweet, go get one. Then I drive one and remember those cars are meant for someone who remembers when Willard Scott was that "new guy on 'The Today Show.'"
By orangutan
on July 30, 2008
09:24 AM
The people I know contemplating hybrids don't compare the hybrid versions to the "normal" versions of the vehicles. Instead, they're comparing their current vehicles to the hybrids. Why? Because they'd otherwise never drive the "normal" versions of those vehicles.
And what figures are you using to arrive at your estimates? What I mean is, are you comparing apples to apples here? Who says that someone who purchases a $26,000 Camry Hybrid was considering a lesser-equipped model in the first place? Maybe they wanted the $25,000 XLE but saw that for a couple hundred dollars more they could get the Hybrid version, which comes with most of the same features and a couple others the XLE doesn't have , and they'd save $634 a year in gas. And do the people who shell out over $60,000 for a hybrid vehicle care in the least about the pay-off time for their hybrid? Is that the reason for buying a Lexus LS600h? Of course not, so it's somewhat disingenuous to discuss it in those terms. Similarly most likely someone is not going to go out and buy a $24,000 Prius instead of a $14,000 Fit because of fuel economy. Buyers don't seem to figure into your equation, except to demonstrate its validity by having them magically care about your factors alone.
By blackadder5639
on July 30, 2008
10:10 AM
I think any pay-off time of around 5 years or less is good.
I don't really think people (except for celebrities and rich people) are buying hybrids to make a "political statement", or more probably, an "environmental statement". Most hybrid owners (and I know a few) buy the hybrid because they drive a lot and they want to save on fuel costs.
A few also buy them for "patriotic" reasons, as they feel they're doing their part in reducing our dependence on foreign oil.
There's more to hybrids than just the pay-off time. If we assume that the extra complexity and the batteries are not themselves harmful to or straining the environment, then I think the importance of reducing pollution and dependence on oil should not be underestimated.....for those reasons alone it's worth buying a hybrid if the pay-off time is 20 years.
[Of course, I'm not really convinced that battery manufacture and disposal aren't as harmful to the environment as pollution and global warming from petroleum......]
I agree with the points made by carlisimo. Orangutan also makes a great point!
By soultek1
on July 30, 2008
01:27 PM
Gas prices drop a bit and now hybrids make no sense? That sounds exactly like Bob Lutz just a couple of years ago.
They've certainly made sense for Toyota.
Every year for the past few years the price of gas has regularly cycled higher and lower through the different seasons, but every year it keeps trending higher.
People that bought a Prius 5 years ago recovered their hybrid costs, and according to KBB, in SoCal, where I live, their hybrids barely depreciated.
And what about the purchase of gas-guzzlers during that time? LOL! Call me a fool, but, suddenly I'm feeling warm and fuzzy.
I really and truly hope gas prices decline for a few years for the sake of the economy, but I'm quite certain that in the next five years - prius payback time - we'll set far higher gas prices.
And five years from now I'll sell my prius for a few thousand less than i paid for it, or convert it to a 150 mpg plug-in for $5000 - about the cost as the resale value of a 5 year old tahoe then.
By cruiserhead1
on July 30, 2008
01:32 PM
ignorant comment blueguydotcom. There are so many types of Prius owners it is just another mainstream option in California.
In fact, with Hollywood "cool" factor, I would venture to say it's probably got more hot women owners than any other sub-$30K vehicle.
Many people buy the Prius simply because it gets the highest MPG's in the city of any vehicle while affording all the room & practicality of a mid size sedan
It's not rocket science, it's a practical car. One that asks no sacrifices for the high mpg's.
As for the boring, appliance-like experience; so what? That is a good thing to a great many people. A car IS simply a product to many people.
Even in the LT blogs, when rushing around with his wife's pregnacy, admitted that sometimes a 'boring" car is just right.
sometimes other factors are just more important.
As to the Prius specifically, the pseudo-futurama interior & exterior tied with effortless (and uninvolving) driving make it perfect for people that are getting on with their lives.
By blueguydotcom
on July 30, 2008
02:20 PM
cruise, It's a joke. Lighten up and have a pop tart, sunshine.
I've never seen an attractive younger woman in a Prius. EVER. If I did, I'd still want to know if she attended Cal, Santa Cruz or Chico State. And we've got Prius everywhere in the foggy state so it's not like it's a exotic car. On the rare occasions we (friends, family) see a non-AARP member in a Prius we tend to comment on the obscene spectacle. Like seeing a dog roller skating, you see a young person driving a Prius and find yourself wondering if the driver borrowed the car from an ailing grandmother.
By hondacura4
on July 30, 2008
07:18 PM
Why does the price of petrol have to be higher for people to want to contribute to the environment?
By blueguydotcom
on July 30, 2008
07:27 PM
Because we're really driven by the bottom-line?
By billt9
on July 31, 2008
04:05 AM
Americans must return to their American roots.
Be American. Drive a truck.
None of this foreign little car business.
There are only 3 American vehicles.
The Ford F-150, Chevy Silverado, and the Dodge Ram.
Choose one. Be a true American.
By dougtheeng
on July 31, 2008
05:53 AM
"I've never seen an attractive younger woman in a Prius. EVER."
I agree with cruiserhead1 - I have seen plenty of hot women in that car. And a lot of chicks I know would be much more impressed with a Prius then a STI/135/M3/etc. Remember, its cool to be environmentally friendly (or at least to APPEAR environmentally friendly).
By orangutan
on July 31, 2008
10:54 AM
I hope you're joking, billt9.
By sylvia
on July 31, 2008
11:48 AM
OK, let's remember the Membership Agreement, staying on topic and basic civility. Comments removed due to violating the Membership Agreement.
By nozferat
on July 31, 2008
12:49 PM
SYLVIA.
I agree...I just get extremely irritated by utter ignorance.
My only recommendation for you and your publication is if you want to be taken seriously, please avoid having people like "Karl On Cars" post such irresponsible nonsense.
Your publication, as do all auto publications, are now in a world where you have a responsibility of informing and educating people on how to be more responsible, more green, and more respectful of the environment they totally and utterly take for granted.
I wonder sometimes what they think they are going to leave behind for their kids.
By nozferat
on July 31, 2008
01:18 PM
A practical car doesn't have to be boring. Europe has plenty of small, efficient cars that are just as fun as any V8 Mustang. You don't have to have a lumbering V8 to have fun.
There's another element to a car being fun and that's called handling. Anyone who's driven a car like a Renault Clio will immediately understand that driving around 350HP sedans and ego boost cars is just that...an ego boost.
By Karl Brauer
on July 31, 2008
03:42 PM
"Your publication, as do all auto publications, are now in a world where you have a responsibility of informing and educating people on how to be more responsible, more green, and more respectful of the environment they totally and utterly take for granted."
Is this statement in the U.S. Constitution? A government bill? My some U.N. document? Admittedly I've only done some quick research after seeing it, but I can't find this statement written in any sort of legal document.
Maybe you can provide a source?
By nozferat
on July 31, 2008
06:13 PM
From what I know it's not written in any books...it's hopefully a reflection of who you are inside and whatever morals you have. That's why it's called a responsibility. Generally any person with a sense of it doesn't need documentation to guide them. You get my drift?
Maybe you are not familiar with such a concept??? If so, I can explain it to you...just in case you have any kids and would hopefully wish a secure, clean, peaceful future for them...just in case.
Best of luck.
By Karl Brauer
on July 31, 2008
07:27 PM
Ah, the oh-so-original "for the children" comment. Gee, there's just no way I can argue against that trump card...
...except maybe to suggest that looking out for America's interests abroad, along with increasing and better utilizing our domestic oil supply, would make me feel far more confident in my children's future than expecting the "global community" and/or "greenies" to take care of their interests.
I'm sure you support the obvious responsibility to our children in those actions (since "responsibility" is such a clearly universal concept, according to you).
By nozferat
on July 31, 2008
10:55 PM
Actually it's not an original comment at all. But I mentioned it because I see a very disturbing trend in people who do have kids these days...and frankly most people who do have kids these days don't care a bit about their kids futures. Which I find very sad indeed.
It's not a trump card. Frankly, I find it sad but I don't care what you do with your kids...if you have any. But I mention it because it goes to show how little people like yourself seem to care.
If you want to look out for America's interests, then be more responsible. Your view won't do anything but create more problems for this country. If you think acting like a pompous bully around the world is going to secure your and your kids' future, you're in for a nice surprise.
Perhaps if we'd spent that trillion dollars of hard earned tax dollars that we've pissed away in a mere 5 years on our own country, our schools, and infrastructure and towards new technology and change, your kids would have a nice future to look forward to. Too bad they don't huh.
Instead...you can hope that they'll be as brainwashed as the next warmonger and enlist and go to war....I'm sure you'll be very proud. Better yet, go and enlist and set an example. Stop wasting your precious time talking to me.
Again, best of luck against "us greenies"...you know...we very very evil people who actually would like to reduce pollution, breath cleaner air, eat better food, have a better life in general (oooo yes...us evil greenies).
By Karl Brauer
on July 31, 2008
11:06 PM
"Again, best of luck against "us greenies"...you know...we very very evil people who actually would like to reduce pollution, breath cleaner air, eat better food, have a better life in general (oooo yes...us evil greenies)."
Lucky for you, IN SPITE of your best mis-guided efforts, you'll likely be kept as safe and secure in the future as you have in the past by all the warmongering money we've pissed away.
That's one of the things that makes America great -- it doesn't discriminate between those who do and those who don't deserve her security. She protects everyone equally.
I'll go ahead and speak for all the brave military folks, and those of us who fully support their ongoing successful efforts: You're welcome.
By nozferat
on July 31, 2008
11:12 PM
"Lucky for you, IN SPITE of your best mis-guided efforts, you'll likely be kept as safe and secure in the future as you have in the past by all the warmongering money we've pissed away."
Afraid not. Thanks you people like you, we've not only sunk our economy in a whole so deep your kid's kids will pay for it (but hey..what do you care right?), we've lost all respect around the world, and we've created nothing but enemies. I can see from your point of view how proud you must be.
"That's one of the things that makes America great -- it doesn't discriminate between those who do and those who don't deserve her security. She protects everyone equally."
Oh geez...where'd you lift that nationalist spiel from? A White House press conference? Or your spitting image Rush Limbaugh?
"I'll go ahead and speak for all the brave military folks, and those of us who fully support their ongoing successful efforts: You're welcome."
Blah blah blah....that line doesn't anymore. You've created nothing but a disaster...you know it and everyone else knows it...now pucker up and accept it.
By mnorm1
on August 1, 2008
10:23 AM
Karl,
I missed something; which war are you mongering?
And if I squint real hard, I do see some resemblence to Rush.
By Karl Brauer
on August 1, 2008
04:36 PM
Flattery will get you nowhere mnorm.
By mcmanus
on August 2, 2008
05:58 AM
The total environmental impact of a hybrid versus fossil fuel efficient model is about the same. The mining needed for Prius batteries is turning northern Canada into a lunar landscape. (NASA is using it for moon/Mars training.) Disposal of the batteries is another headache we've largely ignored. Plus hauling heavy, bulky batteries is counter productive. (Remember steam powered cars? How stupid does that look now?)
I assume Karl's numbers are based on 15,000 miles per year. Would be better to simply state them in "miles to break even". My guess is that the average current break even is around 130,000 miles. How long do the batteries last? What does it cost to replace those batteries? Does the average hybrid owner plan on keeping they car that long? How will battery life and replacement cost affect residual value?
In my opinion there currently is no economic or environmental justification for hybrids. Political or use of specially designated urban freeway lanes, yes there is justification. For rural use, it'd be better to simply save the weight/cost of the batteries/motor(s). For urban use a full electric might make more sense.
I still vote for a carbon fiber car (lighter, stronger, safer, cheaper to insure) with fuel cells as what our R&D efforts should be going for, and stop being distracted by these dead end stop gap technologies. Most of the hydrogen could be cracked from home at night during hours of low electrical consumption.
Break throughs in electrophotaic solar is just months/years away. Combine that with better batteries (that don't have to be hauled around) and you could be free from electrical utilities and gas stations both.