Edmunds CarPool

Diesels typically cost more as does the actual fuel. On top of that gas is no longer $4 a gallon so people arent even as sensitive to fuel prices these days. There is no bright future for diesels unless the government changes its tax policy to favor diesel fuel and stops making it nearly impossible for diesels to be 50 state legal. Word is Acura is cancelling the TSX diesel because it wont be 50 state legal.

What is the cost of that Q7 TDI? I know its astronomical. If you want an affordable diesel you have ONE option- the Jetta. The rest of them are in high end luxury vehicles that are unaffordable for 90% of the populace. I doubt diesels will ever be more than 5-10%. Plus Toyota doesnt really support diesels and Toyota is the one who decides what technology is legitimately "green". Many people will say "if Toyota is focusing on hybrids that MUST be the better solution".

On a recent business trip to the U.K., I was observing the cars in the hotel parking lot. I counted 12 BMWs, and all but the lone Z4 had diesel engines, and several were 3 and 5-series sport package models. So it seems, based on a very limited sampling, that even sports sedans in the U.K. have overwelmingly switched to diesel.

One remaining minor nuisance with diesels is that many local gas stations still don't carry diesel fuel, or only have it at one pump. But I would definitely consider a diesel engine if it was available in the specific car that I wanted.

Diesel won't succeed in US cars anytime soon for many reasons. The engines simply cost too much to produce and the US obviously sees diesel as a dirty fuel given the strict emissions rules they have in play. Let me ask you this, if I am a manufacturers, why am I going to invest millions just to pass the US emissions test if I am already investing millions into hybrids? You won't be seeing diesels on affordable cars outside the Jetta.

I'm seriously considering buying a SportWagen TDI next year, and I'd take a hard look /

I think diesels will eventually take off, but there are a number of hurdles to overcome. One of these is what everyone has already mentioned, the perception. In Europe, there are tons of diesels available in everything from an econo-box city car to a luxury sedan. Once Americans realize that you can have a luxurious or sporty car and use diesel, it may take off.

Another problem is the taxes, diesel needs to be taxed differently than it currently does. Currently, the majority of diesel is used by the freight industry, so the government taxes it more than gasoline. If this changes, prices will fall a bit and it may become more popular.

Finally, the refineries in the US use a process which produces more gasoline and less diesel. Basic supply and demand is in effect, since diesel has a more limited supply, the cost is higher. The only way for the refineries to begin to switch their processes is for the demand to increase, which leads back to the first hurdle.

Overall, I have driven a few diesels in Europe and the are amazing. The Audi A3 2.0 TDI is a wonderful car and it would be great if it was available here. If more manufacturers bring diesels to the US, and if more of them are luxury marques, then we may see a shift in the trend. It probably won't happen to quickly though.

I fail to see how people who claim to be abreast on everything automotive are getting caught up on this diesel bandwagon. The facts are there and if people actually used their "power" more effectively, they'd be interviewing persons who work for the auto companies and get their take on the future of diesel in this country. As 1487 has stated, so far as we know Toyota is not investing into diesel and Honda has likely pulled out based on the issues they've experienced. If Honda and Toyota aren't behind it, then a few expensive Audi/BMW/MB diesels will do nothing to penetrate the market. Small displacement diesels have the best change of any success and they will be few and far between. Diesel cars will remain and niche unless emissions policies alter (highly unlikely) and whoever can't see that is just blind.

I'm seriously considering buying a SportWagen TDI next year. I'll take a hard look at the 335d, though I suspect I'd be happier with a 330d in wagon form. I'd also take a hard look at a Forester diesel IF Subaru would just bring one here.

That said, I'm worried that the naysayers may be correct. Consumers have a shockingly short memory, so if gas stays below $3 for more than a couple months, "alternatives" like diesel may become less fashionable. Not that I want gas prices to increase again. I just hope diesels catch on here so we can have some of the same cool and economical choices are European friends have.

edubya: Gas prices will rise again, don't you worry.

For those of you who observe diesel being priced so much higher then gas, do you know if it has always been that way? In Canada, only in the last 3 years has diesel been more then gas. Prior to that, it was typically 25% cheaper (at least in Southern Ontario).

You mean, just like in Europe where the market share of diesel is going down?

Or when your new blu-tec machine shuts down because your injection tank is empty.

Brilliant a car that cant even go to refill it self

Doug, I remember diesel in the US (VA and TX, at least) being cheaper than gas by a small margin for many years.

Opfreak, what's your source? I can't find any reports that show a decline of market share. I did find that diesels accounted for over 53% of EU new car registrations in 2007, compared to just over 50% in 2006.

"Or when your new blu-tec machine shuts down because your injection tank is empty.

Brilliant a car that cant even go to refill it self"

Don't all cars shut down when the fuel tank is empty?

I'm sure the computer will give you plenty of warning before the blu-tec is empty.

Most people arent going to be enamored with the concept of refilling a tank to keep their car legal from an emissions standpoint. Besides, until BluTec is available in lower end cars its going to be a niche player. What you need is a Camry or Accord diesel. That will make it mainstream because America largely believes Japanese automakers can do no wrong.

When you consider than the 2011 Cruze is supposed to be about the size of the Jetta and capable of close to 40mpg on the highway with a turbo gas engine I think that diesel's propects could be limited in the US.

"Most people arent going to be enamored with the concept of refilling a tank to keep their car legal from an emissions standpoint."

Agreed, although 15,000 miles is reportedly the expected refill interval. That's not horrible. On the other hand, the Jetta TDI does not use urea injection, so no refills are required!

1487, I must disagree. While car buyers in America are enamored with Japanese marques, I think that cost and availability of vehicles will make diesel more popular in a few years. The markups and wait times for hybird cars will make them unattractive, especially if more lower-cost diesel vehicles become available. If VW were to bring their diesel Rabbits to the US, it would probably be a good contender with a number of Japanese vehicles. Additionally, if diesel begins to be used in more prestigious vehicles (say a BMW 5\7 Series or MB S Class), consumers may view it differently. Also, adding the AdBlu to a diesel vehicle will probably be viewed just like an oil change. It's a necessary part of maintaining the vehicle; people change their oil, don't they?

gmg66, most of Europe has tax structures that favor diesel - the high diesel market share is artificial. (Which isn't to say no one would buy them without the tax breaks - in a land of 1.0-1.5L engines, the torque of a diesel is a good thing.)

In the US we have large engines that get all the torque most people want. And we don't care THAT much about mileage... not enough to overcome the additional cost or a hybrid or a diesel. But I do see government intervention paving the way for diesels - they'll be one of the easier ways to meet the 2020 CAFE regulations. The EPA's current test under-reports their mileage, but the CAFE regs are still based on decades-old mileage tests. Particulates are a regulatory concern (totally separate from CAFE) but it sounds like they've just about got a handle on them. Excluding Honda, if the rumors are true.

Diesel pickup trucks and SUVs, not subcompacts, would benefit most from diesel engines. In addition, diesel torque would be especially useful in a truck and extra noise would just enhance the "tough" image. The real problem has always been that diesel engines cost thousands of dollars more than their gasoline equivalent and EPA regulations blocked their sale.

I thought low-sulfur diesel fuel and improved emissions control systems would open up the market for diesel light trucks. The surprise was how much more expensive the new low-sulfur fuel would be. In Plano, TX where I live the best price for regular unleaded is $2.159 per gallon vs. $3.299 per gallon for diesel. I like the idea of diesel trucks, but the economics still don't work.

"It's a necessary part of maintaining the vehicle; people change their oil, don't they?"

Exactly! It's like an air filter or oil change. Need it addressed approximately once a year, and it will be handled during regular service intervals. So other than the histrionics about "HAVING AN ADDITIONAL TANK IN THE CAR!!" most people will never know or care.

Charcoal cannisters as part of emission systems didn't cause any user meltdowns...

It must be nice to completely ignore facts yet still expect your opinion to hold water.

chavis10...interestingly both Honda and Toyota both offer small displacement diesels in other markets. If 'Toyota is not investing into diesel and Honda has likely pulled out', then why do they have models available in almost all other markets? Yes, bringing these vehicles to the US would require a little more work because of emissions specifications, but there are probably other reasons. I highly doubt that the reason they aren't here already is 'people may not buy them'. The original Prius hybrid was brought over well before the current fuel situation.

The only way that diesel will succeed in the US is if the government eases up on emissions and taxes. That is basically the main reason that diesels did so well in Europe - the government encouraged people to buy them, and by doing so encouraged manufacturers to sell them. In the US, the OEM's see oppressive taxes and regulations and think "why bother"? And given that the California Democrats rule congress, and they'll soon have a Democratic president to rubber-stamp them, I don't see this changing any time soon.

"It must be nice to completely ignore facts yet still expect your opinion to hold water."

I wouldn't know...but if you want to describe how it feels I'm happy to listen.

Karl, like you dont ignore the facts?

if that Charcoal cannister becomes full does the car shut down?

And how much will this yearly refill cost? 100,200,300 dollars? So much for saving money. Pay more up front, pay more at the pump, pay more to matain. BRILLIANT.

fyi:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/german-diesel-engine-market-share-craters/

Seems to me the reality is Americans have decided they don't like diesels and rather then admit they were wrong, they will argue the point endlessly.

Face it folks, diesels have always been good engines and the latest ones are great engines.

How many here have even driven a diesel? (old Rabbits and Oldsmoblies don't count)

"I wouldn't know...but if you want to describe how it feels I'm happy to listen."

Actually you would know better than most since you are famous(imfamous) for omitting key pieces of information that don't support your points. If you read the mostly intelligent views posted in response to your entries you would see where I'm coming from. You asked if diesel will catch on and since you don't like the answers you are getting you get smart. As usual. Instead of making poor attempts to be witty with your responses why not tell us why you believe in your heart that diesel WILL catch on here.

People have stated the reasons why they believe it wont. BTW, you and other diesel fanatics fail to acknowledge that diesels do NOT match full hybrids in city mileage and most American driving is in urban/suburban situations. This is one reason why Toyota and Honda are pursuing hybrids in the US as opposed to diesels.

Its funny that Karl's home state is likely to be a major factor in preventing diesels from gaining significant traction here because of their constant push for stricter emissions regulations at the same time he is shilling for diesel acceptance. Diesels need some help from the EPA and tax breaks (on fuel and on vehicles) to take off in the US.

first,

I think you need to read what is being said here more carefully. No one is arguing that diesels are "bad" engines. No one is even saying that Americans cant be pursuaded to drive diesels. What we are saying is the regulatory and tax environment in the US must change if diesel is to catch on. You and Karl seem to have the naive view that the only reason diesels dont sell here is because Americans arent as smart as you two. I would beg to differ.

Firstwagon- give it rest. Who has come out and said they do not like modern diesel engines? Personally, I like diesel engines (in trucks/SUVs) but the reality is the current policies of this country do not encourage diesel production for passenger cars. There is ZERO manufacturer incentive to spend millions of dollars in passeneger diesels unless you are tying to sell the same car in Europe (ie Caddy CTS). This is not a matter of an opinion, go research it and get back to us. Matter of fact, send your findings to Karl so he can catch up with the rest of us in the know. Americans wont fall in love with diesels because a) 95% of diesel options will cost more than the gas equivalent b) diesel fuel cost more than premium gas and c) Americans view hyrbids as the Kings of efficiency. Do you or Karl honestly think your average Jane/Joe will be looking at a spreadsheet that shows a diesel engine might save $100 over 5 years of ownership? Americans are face value/right-now kind of people so when they see more expensive engine coupled with more expensive fuel, they will hesitate. History will tell us that Americans are slow to adapt and hop off of current bandwagons so hyrbids will remain the "green" choice for quite some time. It has nothing to do with diesel's smokey/smelly history.

Our resident editor/guru/genius reports single sided claims that leave out vital information that would basically refutes his jaded views. It would seem that he feels his "authority" can substitute for hard evidence and maybe that'll suffice for some on this site but not for those who know how to read and understand both sides to every story.

Karl would rather try has hand at insult comdey instead of digging up a few facts. Here's an even better idea- interview some industry employees who actually KNOW what they hell they are talking about. Wow, what a concept and in fact, most other publications do just that. As it stands, the only difference between Karl and others here is that he gets to drive cars and we don't. I'll acquiesce when it comes to road tests since I don't drive cars for a living but when it comes to industry trends, news and predictions, he has no advantage. It's amazing how he can completely ignore facts presented and still think that he's opinions are factual.

The fact that Karl bases his entire diesel argument on a slow selling ultra expensive SUV is laughable at best and pathetic at worst. Even if you include the Jetta which I will admit has a cult following, it still doesn't advance the case as the Jetta TDI is the diesel exception and not the rule.

"Doug, I remember diesel in the US (VA and TX, at least) being cheaper than gas by a small margin for many years."

Thanks, edubya. Similar to Canada, I suspect this was the case in most of the USA. This is an interesting point which, imo, takes some of the wind out of the "it costs more" argument. It costs more right now, its true. And for that reason, I can see why someone would choose not to buy one. That being said, we are in a pretty volatile time when it comes to economics and especially the gas/diesel/oil industry. Not that anyone can predict it, but I suspect that once things calm down a big we will find diesel to be priced similar to gasoline.

http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2008/06/09/in-western-europe-diesel-is-all-the-time-gaining-market-share-compared-to-gasoline-jeroen-van-der-veer/

Here's an interesting article that might add to our discussion.

chavis,

I think Karl has made it clear he doesnt trust anything said by those who work within the auto industry so he just gives us his version of the truth. Arguing that its easy to sell diesels here but automakers wont do it is similar to the lame "they have the technology available to make cars get 40mpg for cheap but wont sell it to us because they are in league with Big Oil". Automakers react to demand and there is little demand for diesels for reasons that have been discussed in detail already.

edubya- good article. It pretty much supports the claims made so far in the dicussion by those how have taken the time to read similar stories. Diesel is a viable alternative to gasoline in certain countries- the US not being one of them. The internet is a powerful tool if harnessed correctly.

I used to work for Philly's transit agency and just heard an interesting story from some my contacts there. The last shipment of buses (400) received have the latest Cummins engines that cannot run on the older high sulfur diesel fuel. Therefore special provisions had to be made at significant cost to ensure this fleet operates from one specific depot (out of 9 total) with a specific supply of the newer low sulfur content #2. More importantly, all overhauled buses are receiving the new engines daily meaning the other 9 depots have to upgrade their fueling systems to ensure none of the older sulfur rich fuel gets pumped into their tanks. This all has to do with new emissions standards for commercial vehicles.

Think about this for a minute, Karl and the other editors have some of the hottest cars on the market sitting in their garage ready to be signed out. Despite they are raving about diesels.

Perhaps they know something you don't.

Perhaps the reason diesels don't sell is the US is because the vast majority of Americans have never driven one.

Excuses like government regulations and consumeables are just excuses. So is pollution. In a country where everyone thinks it's their god given right to sit in traffic getting 12 mpg, I seriously doubt many really care about pollution.

If your diesel fuel cost more the regular gas then you should be asking why? Diesel takes a lot less refining and should always be cheaper then gasoline. If it's more then perhaps your state has put in a big tax on the trucking industry.

As for mileage, compare the 05 Jetta TDI which gets around 40 mpg with the latest test of the Colbalt XFE which only got 25 mpg.

http://www.edmunds.com/insideline/do/Drives/FullTests/articleId=134506?tid=edmunds.il.home.photopanel..2.*

"Though we followed the advice of the shift light almost exclusively over the course of a thousand miles, we achieved a worst tank of 22 mpg, a best tank of 29 mpg and an overall average of 25 mpg. "

Still think you won't save money?

The price of gas may be down now but as soon as the economy rebounds, up it will go again.

"If it's more then perhaps your state has put in a big tax on the trucking industry."
I agree with you mostly firstwagon, but I feel that I need to clear this up because it's repeated often. Diesel vs. gas tax is not making diesel cost almost a dollar more per gallon in many states. http://www.taxadmin.org/FTA/rate/motor_fl.html

I believe it comes back to refining capacity to our market and the mix of gas and diesel our refineries are designed for. Also at the end of the day there's a limit on how much diesel vs. gas you can produce from each gallon of crude.

"As for mileage, compare the 05 Jetta TDI which gets around 40 mpg with the latest test of the Colbalt XFE which only got 25 mpg."

according to the EPA the Cobalt gets 30mpg combined not 25mpg and C&D average 29mpg. I dont believe the new Jetta diesel averages 40mpg overall per the EPA or real world driving. Lets compare apples to apples. BTW, the Cobalt is thousands cheaper than the Jetta TDI.

Maybe diesel should be cheaper than gas but that doesnt change the fact that its NOT cheaper. As I said changes needed to be made in tax policy.

as for pollution, I never said Americans care about pollution. I said that our clean air standards make it hard for diesels to be 50 state legal here and most diesels from Europe cant pass our emissions standards. You say thats an "excuse"? What are you talking about? Its reality and it needs to be addressed if we want diesels to proliferate here.

You said maybe Karl and his coworkers know something we dont. I dont get the point there because no one here is suggesting that diesels are bad engines. You are right most here havent driven a diesel but that doesnt mean diesels dont face significant obstacles here. A and B arent even related. I think the Zr1 is great but the reality is my income prevents me (and many others) from actually having one in front of my house. I dont not own a 400hp car because I think they are "bad".

Firstwagon- how are real facts being interpreted as "excuses"? Direct your frustrations to the appropriate party, not us. We are just reporting the reality of the situation while you seem to be having an emotional reaction to these facts. It's plainly obvious why diesel cars won't sell well in the US for quite some time and we've gave you plenty of reasons (excuses?) why. First of all, who is even manufacturer diesels in a large enough numbers to cause a phase shift? You cannot have a fruitful conversation about this without examining the manufacturers intent to produce these altenative powertrains. If they aren't planning to build them then why are we even having this discussion?

Cost of fuel is a relatively minor part of the cost burden of diesel. The major problem is the complex, expensive emissions equipment with no track record for long term durability. On top of that, with major markets like California unilaterally renegging on emissions standards there is strong incentive for manufacturers to simply stay out of it.

Saving 50 to 100 bucks a month on fuel is not nearly as significant as single issue MPG nuts make it out to be. One good check engine light will eat up 5 years of those savings.

How enjoyable to drive 60k Euro luxury diesels are is a non issue.

One thing is for sure, diesel isnt going to increase its penetration rate by appearing in $60k luxury vehicles. I question whether or not people buying GLs and M classes even care much about mileage. The same could be said of the GM hybrid SUVs but the difference is "hybrid" on your vehicle gives you a certain "green" status that you just dont get with a diesel SUV.

1487, you are correct. In order for diesel to make a serious attempt at penetrating the NA market, it needs to start showing up in more economical and attainable vehicles. A $60k SUV isn't going to do it. There was an article in the Globe & Mail by Jeremy Cato entitiled "Nine new diesels coming to a showroom near you" or something like that. I was excited until I read the article which mainly consisted of MB, BMW & Audi models. I think the only affordable one was the Jetta. Hyundai has a diesel version of their Santa Fe. That would go a long way in attracting interest as would the diesel version of the Subaru Forester. Show somebody a $30k SUV that is getting 35 mpg instead of 21 and then you'll get their attention.

I don't agree with you when you say that Karl left out pertinent details. This is an opinion piece. His opinion is that diesels are poised to make a breakthrough, and however delusional that opinion may be when it's based on the merits of a $60k SUV in this credit crunched and recessionized economy, it is still just an opinion. And I thought his smart-a$$ answer earlier came in response to a smart-a$$ remark by chavis10.

Just my 2 cents.

quadsport- How can you discuss the possible proliferation of diesel passenger cars in the US without tackling the manufacturering side of the equation? In my book, that is leaving out the MOST important of "pertinent" details. Opinions are fine but when hard facts of the situation are readily available, it's hard for a single sided opinion to "hold water" as my smart-a$$ remark illustrated.

A more valid piece would be one that suggests what changes we need to make in the US to allow diesels to proliferate. Simply suggesting that diesels are great and anyone who isnt looking to buy one is ignorant is a little silly. Also contrary to Karl's comment Chavis actually references facts when making arguments. While its everyone's right to attempt to go tit for tat and make smart aleck remarks to get back at others it would be nice if the retorts actually made sense.

BTW, in case you missed the post ended with a question about whether we believe diesel is about to take off. Most that responded do not believe it's about to take off. Not sure why anyone would be upset at the responses if we were asked to weigh in on the issue.