Edmunds CarPool

Who said 75-100mpg on the new prius? Considering the source, why did you believe it?

I've never really been a fan of the concept cars shown at Autoshows as the vast majority of them never see the light of day. It seems like a lot of money and time are wasted building fancy computer interiors - and this is money that could be spent on better products elsewhere.

The current trend of making up EVs is rediculous. With the exception of the 200, it seems like Dodge/Chrysler's entire show was just taking an existing model and putting a sticker on the side that say "ELECTRIC VEHICLE". Does anyone actually believe there will be an electric Dodge vehicle anytime soon? Unlikely.

I commend GM for their efforts with the Volt, and I think it will be a real stepping stone forward. The first version of it may not be great, but neither was the first version of the Prius. BUT the concept was solid, and persistence has paid off for Toyota. I hope GM is around long enough to do the same.

BTW, I'm all for viable transportation that is unique in technology (ie Prius and other Hybrids) even if they don't lay down 1.0g, or sub-10 seconds 0-60 times. Lusting for Lambo's is all fine (and believe me, I do that too) but we need to respect and appreciate the steps taken forward by cars like Hybrids. Even if the overall result is not 100mpg, the point is that its a technology trying to reduce dependence on oil - and at this stage of the game, the thought really does count.

Karl, since you hate automakers so much, why even bother going to the Auto Shows? You seemed to have missed the memo that for profit companies need to generate buzz and create hype around their current and future products. It's called marketing. Half the stuff you see at these shows are just for entertainment and exploring possibilites of the future (except for Acura which releases every lightly disguised concept as a production model- for better or worse). CES also had their show this week and although they diplayed 80" 3D flat panel TVs doesn't mean I can go to Best Buy in 2 months and buy one.

The Prius is only available at its current price because the first generation and half of the second generation were money losers for the company. Most car companies can't justify such a loss just to gain acceptance in the public eye. Again, the theme here is FOR-profit business. Why do you think Toyota is spawning the HS250h off this new Prius platform? It's a profit generator loaded with high dollar bells and whistles that'll help offset the miniscule margins now made on the Prius.

Basically, the EV/hydrogen vehicle has to start somewhere and to expect the perfect vehicle at the magical price point to be available out of the gate is a symptom of delusion. The Prius was a novel idea and proof that producing this technology is risky and definitely not cheap. Once more compact two mode systems and Li-ion batteries become more mainstream, we should see improvements in mileage but, someone has to first crawl down this road before the whole industry can walk it.

The automakers (really just the domestic ones) have to show they are working on this stuff and its brilliant marketing. The Volt and Converj and Spark will get mainstream media coverage and instantly help GM's image. Sure they wont be on sale anytime soon but the regular media doesnt care about that. They dont care that people actually drive midsize cars and crossovers. These concepts are about showing who is looking forward in the most aggressive way when it comes to electric cars. No one wants to be outdone on the efficiency front because the media (and to a lesser extent the public) has made "green" the new buzzword and many are convinced that Americans are suddenly concerned about conservation and modestly. To not show electric and hybrid vaporware in this climate would be foolish.

brn,

Honda fanboys were touting 70mpg for the insight and Toyota fanboys were talking about 90-100mpg for the Prius. I saw such statements made many times by people who supposedly heard leaked specs on the cars. Granted, none were employees of the manufacturers but these notions were pretty widespread.

50mpg US is 63.5mpg Imperial. Given some babying (hypermiling?) I can see 75mpg (Imperial) on specific trips.

What's the average mileage of all new cars sold in the US? 20? 25? Even if Toyota can convert 400k buyers of Camry-sized vehicles or larger then a considerable amount of fuel will not be purchased/ not imported from unfriendly regimes/ converted into ice-cap melting greenhouse gases, depending on your concern. A consistent 45mpg would double my current vehicle's mileage, and that's good enough for me.

I'd give serious consideration to a new Insight.

1478, the Prius exists in its current state because Toyota had the foresight to embark on a long-term project, without killing it if the first iteration wasn't a home run. Yes, I'm looking at GM.

As for the 90-100 mpg claims... it's true, they were widely made. They referred to the Japanese equivalent of the EPA test, which is way more exaggerated than even the pre-'08 EPA circuit. The second generation Prius scored an mpg rating of 84 in Japan, and Toyota said the third generation would be about 15% better (putting it in the high 90s). The part about being 15% more efficient appears to have come true.

I'm not a fan though, because of how it drives (I think it looks fine, unless you're old fashioned). The Honda Insight would stand a better chance of winning me over even if it's rated around 40 mpg.

1487, that's what I figure. I don't know why Karl chose to listen to fanboys rather than tapping his own connections. I expect industry media to dispel such myths, rather than follow them.

Why would the Prius convert people looking at Camry sized vehicles? Why wouldn't it convert people looking at Prius sized vehicles. Wouldn't the Fusion and Camry hybrid be a better choice for someone looking at a Fusion or Camry sized vehicle? That's assuming you even believe the whole global warming thing.

I don't think the supply of batteries (or material to make them) will be a big issue because I don't think electric cars will suddenly become wide spread. They will appear slowly like the 1st Prius and the Smart.

I think they will take over for about 30% of cars but not until another generation of batteries are developed.

Making an electric car is easy, easier then a gasoline car.

The problem is even the latest batteries are too expensive and hold too little power.

I think the engineering goal should be a battery pack the size and weight of a full tank of gas and contains as much energy.

Then we can worry about where all then electricity will come from.

Let's all (chavis) keep in mind that even if the Prius is a money-loser, it's the halo from the Prius that kept Toyota afloat when gas prices soared. Marketing & profit extend beyond individual nameplates to the company as a whole.

"Which do you prefer -- fantasy cars falsely presented as reality, or real cars (even if they are really boring cars) that represent viable transportation?"

My preference is real cars that represent viable transportation!
But without the fantasy cars, I guess Auto Shows would be boring. I actually think it's not a bad idea to create buzz about a cars that feature future technologies that could make them viable. Telling big lies about them is another story, though.

I wouldn't completely call EVs like Tesla and the Volt fantasy cars. Sure, they're not going to have widespread adoption anytime soon, but the fact that they will serve as completely useful cars for those who can afford them is a great step.

drwales,

Toyota is talking about GLOBAL sales when they say 400k, not US sales. They are hoping for 180k US sales which is a stretch considering how poorly the Prius has done in the last quarter of 2008.

Carlismo,

I dont know much about Japan's system but if what you say is true no informed person should have been talking about 90mpg in the US. If the US system is different talking about Japanese efficiency ratings is pointless. I guess according to the Japanese my car gets about 25mpg in the city. Either way I never believed Toyota could improve efficiency by 100% in one generation but it seemed many optimists and environmental SUV hating zealots embraced this mythology.

"Let's all (chavis) keep in mind that even if the Prius is a money-loser, it's the halo from the Prius that kept Toyota afloat when gas prices soared. Marketing & profit extend beyond individual nameplates to the company as a whole."

Prius did nothing for Toyota's bottom line, only image. Lexus models and SUVS generate profits for Toyota. Sales of those vehicles crashed in the 2nd half of 2008 and the company is losing money. No coincidence. People confuse products that generate good will with products that make money. This idea that Toyota was profitable in year's past because it made Corollas and Prius makes no sense. You dont make money on such cars generally speaking.

The perspective from the inside looking out may be a bit different. I have worked in the advanced technologies department within the R&D arm of a major corporation, although I haven't worked on a car. Demos and technology showcases do serve some useful purposes, mainly for the rank and file working on the technology:

1. It gives a goal to work towards and helps rally the troops. Inching your research along gets tedious. Striving towards making it presentable by a certain date to certain people lights a fire under your belly. Having that showing be successful gives you a sense of victory.

2. Budgetary decision makers often don't come from engineering backgrounds. They don't understand and therefore are not impressed with steel wheels bolted to a tube frame prototype. They tend to focus on the messy wires that hang out everywhere instead of the whiz-bang features. Impressing the general public also tends to sway their decision making in favor of the project.

3. It offers a good forum for peer review. Peer review is necessary for good work and getting it from outside your organization helps. It's easy to do in academia (been there done that as well): just write a paper and circulate it, preferably within a respected journal. In industry, it's a bit harder than that. A trade show allows for some candidness that comes from "off-the-record" comments.

So in the end, these types of demos (I imagine concept cars work similarly to demos) aren't exactly meant for consumers, or even the consumer's intermediaries (i.e. journalists) because consumers aren't the real customers and aren't controlling the money. Not directly, anyway.

"...the automakers were claiming these vehicles would be available in the next 12-24 months when, of course, they probably won't represent viable transportation for upwards of 12-24 years."

Been there done that as well. Usually, it's either marketing off on a tangent, management hasn't gotten involved yet, or the message got mangled somewhere along the way (e.g. "could" vs. "would"). Often, it's a combination of all three.

The #1 biggest problem I have with the Dodge EV is that it is essentially a Lotus Europa that has a new grille, badges and some batteries in it. Personally, I'm really looking forward to Lotus' solution to an electric car. I bet you that it'll beat the pants off of any other electric car.

1487, yes, it was absurd for people to say the Prius was going to get 90+ mpg. They obviously didn't backcheck the rumor and it was amazing how far it spread before anyone realized it was talking about official Japanese mpg numbers (in other words, it wasn't informed people spreading that rumor). It's even more stupid than people complaining or boasting that their real-world numbers are different than the EPA estimates therefore the EPA is wrong. MPG isn't straightforward... your mileage may vary.

7driver, I love pure concept cars, but they keep claiming things that don't come true and it happens so consistently that it's not just a lack of internal communication anymore. It's just baiting consumers and fishing for bailout dollars. In the end it's the companies that are quiet about their concept cars that actually put them into production in the short term, and I'm beginning to think of the others as they boys who cried wolf.

2009 Toyota Prius: US 46 mpg combined, 65.69 UK mpg combined.

2010 Toyota Prius: US 50 mpg combined, ~71.4 UK mpg combined.

So the new 2010 Prius certainly does break 70 mpg.
70 miles per Imperial Gallon.

When will the United States of America stop using measuring units that no one else in the world uses...

Which do you prefer -- fantasy cars falsely presented as reality, or real cars (even if they are really boring cars) that represent viable transportation?

I think there needs to be a balance of fantasy, or concept, and the reality cars. I want to know what automakers are doing and what kind of new technologies they are working on. While most concept cars never become production cars, new and improved technology is always implemented in future models. Autoshow, in my opinion, is not just about what we have today, but it is also about what we will see tomorrow.

Without concept cars and fun displays, autoshow would be nothing more than a trip to a local dealer. That brings me to another point. I have seen TV coverage of the autoshow and I must say that to me it's not worth $12 price of admission anymore (not to mention additional $10 for parking) to visit the NAIAS this year. Due to the economic downturn, companies aren't having elaborate displays or lighting. Fun and excitement is gone.

"I think the engineering goal should be a battery pack the size and weight of a full tank of gas and contains as much energy."

Impossible. The energy density of gasoline is the highest of any substance in the world. Therefore, short of putting a nuclear reactor in every car that engineer goal will be estopped by the laws of physics as we know them today.

EV cars will NEVER predominate the industry. Do I think we should continue to push the technology? Of course, but we shouldn't be under any delusions that a nation as diverse and vast as ours will be satisfied with a vehicle as provential as an electric.

"Impossible. The energy density of gasoline is the highest of any substance in the world"

LOL. Not quite but it is higher by a wide margin then any current batteries.

Gasoline has an energy density by mass of 46.4 MJ/Kg while a Lithium Ion battery only has .72 MJ/Kg. Lead acid batteries are around .1 MJ/Kg and NiCd are about .22 MJ/Kg.

That's why you need to carry so many of them to get acceptable range (thus the cost and weight).

There a lot of research under way into much better designs that show a 10 fold improvement or more. That's why I said it was an engineering goal.

Oh and never say NEVER. They made not completely replace internal combustion engines but they could easily dominate the market given an affordable powerful battery and a high enough oil price.

(BTW.. what does provential mean?)

"what does provential mean"

Sorry misspelled. provincial

Hybrids/Plugins don't have to replace all the 5-passenger sedans sold; just some of them. Meanwhile the other IC models need to get shorter, lighter and more space and fuel efficient - at least 50% better, with little loss of performance. The electics' great efficiency is in the city; now the new Prius has more highway zip and better mpg. Not any better than the Fusion/Milan hybrid, though, and that's about the same price whilst the PROFITS stay here in the USA. If you look in your rear-view mirror, you can easily spot Toyota's peak.

"Which do you prefer -- fantasy cars falsely presented as reality, or real cars (even if they are really boring cars) that represent viable transportation?"

Real cars, please.
Fantasy cars should stay within the realm of video games.