As you read this the latest new car sales figures are rolling in from manufacturers, and the news isn't particularly bright. Car sales ticked up for the month of February compared to January, but in terms of the typical increase between these two months (usually around 15 percent more cars are sold in a given February than the preceeding Janaury) the figures fall well short of expectations.
Translation: New car sales remain in the tank.
Does this mean people have stopped buying cars altogether? Nope, they've just decided to chase maximum value for their car-buying dollar.
It's no secret that used cars represent a greater value than new cars. We've all heard the phrase, "A new car loses 20 percent of its value the moment you drive it off the lot." It sounds crazy, but it's also true (with rare exception, such a limited-edition vehicles that likely cost more than MSRP to begin with). How to avoid this instant blow to your financials? Easy -- buy used, and let some other poor sod take the 20 percent hit.
Plenty of people refuse to take such advice. "I don't want to buy a car some other person already owned!" Sometimes they even follow this statement up with a passionate "Ewww!" or "Icky!!" Apparently they feel car cooties are a very real threat one must avoid.
But a funny thing happens when The Dow drops 50 percent and unemployment doubles. Suddenly car cooties aren't as frightening as that instant 20 percent price drop, and Edmunds internal data suggests as many as half-a-million likely new-car buyers went used between November and January (get more details here). This, despite record incentive efforts by the Big 6 automakers.
While used car sales aren't the only factor dragging down new car sales (a precipitous drop in rental and fleet activity also plays a role), it's clear plenty of people are still buying cars -- just not new cars.
And let's face it, most of today's used cars are pretty good deals. It's not 1976 anymore, and the idea that a used car is an avalanche of problems waiting to happen doesn't wash. Really, beyond some stone chips in the front bumper and the zeros in the odometer, how different is a low-mileage, 2007 model compared to a leftover 2008 or a brand new 2009? And if you do buy a new car it will acquire those two traits in the first 1000 miles, wont it?
Plenty of conditions are going to impact new car sales as we go forward. But beyond the obvious economic situation is a far more powerful paradigm shift; one capable of contracting new vehicle sales indefinitley: A recognition by former new car buyers that today's used cars represent a damn good value.
There is a flipside of course. If enough people buy used, then the used car market will dry up. And a reduced supply of anything inevitably means a higher price on the remaining supply, driving the cost of used cars closer to that of new (particularly with all this incentive activity). At some point it becomes a waste of money to buy used when a new car is almost the same price.
Where do you think we are in this cycle right now, and if you had to buy today would you go new or used?
By bepperb
on March 3, 2009
07:10 AM
I had formerly bought mostly new cars, but in December I bought a used car. Sure the deals and incentives on new cars are great now, but some of the used cars I've seen are even more amazing values. The further the manufacturers push down the price of new, the further they push the price of used cars. If you can pay cash or get a decent interest rate, you can really stretch your dollar.
It seems that there was an overproduction of vehicles over the last five years, and that glut of product will take awhile to whittle away via driving/accidents/floods or whatever else consumes vehicles and forces new demand. It sure doesn't seem like consumer demand will increase in the near future. Looking forward, though, it seems like we've lost 1/3 of new vehicle production, and in a few years not only will the supply of new cars be smaller than demand, but the supply of used cars will be small as well (since it's basically a function of the last few years' production).
The things that would force me to buy new would be considerably better fuel economy (say, 10%) which wasn't available, built in gps for less than 500, or significantly better styling. The former strategy of every car company, increasing the size, doesn't appeal to me when I worry that gas could cost $5.00 a gallon in a few years.
By wizard8873
on March 3, 2009
07:27 AM
Family mainly buys new cars, with the exception of my eclipse i purchased back in 03. last car i had was purchased new as well and i've always had my eyes set on an M45 but could never afford a new one so decided to either wait until i get into a good position to own one, which by then who knows if the model would be around, or wait for the price to drop and find a good deal on a used one and sure enough, i found a great deal on a used one and traded in. an 06 with 12.5k miles meant the warranty was still there and the car was practically brand new and cost less than 50% of what a new one was going for with the same options.
By eidolways
on March 3, 2009
07:56 AM
My family has, in the past decade, purchased a mix of new and used vehicles. My current vehicle was purchased used, for instance.
If I HAD to buy a car today, like if my current car were totaled, then I would buy used because I'm not in the financial situation to handle the higher price of a newer car.
That said, I DO want to finish paying off my current car, save up a down payment, and then buy a new car later this year.
By blueguydotcom
on March 3, 2009
08:20 AM
Used. We did used on my wife's Audi and saved about 10k from the car's MSRP - plus it had about 12k miles and 2.% years left on the warranty. It's been great.
Helped my sister with a brass hat 328 wagon last year. She had 3 years left on the warranty, plus 2years CPO and she saved about 40% from MSRP. She loves it.
I just bought a CPO'd 335i 6 MT with 2 years left on the warranty, another 2 for the CPO warranty and I paid 26.5k for it with my BMWCCA rebate. That's 58% of the car's MSRP. Great car and considering my Cooper needed tires and tags I feel like my BMW with a longer warranty and 4 new shoes is sort of a steal. I can now fit the family, have RWD again, we have a good freeway cruiser and the car's got a polish I was beginning to miss in my Cooper.
New car buying doesn't really make sense to me unless it's an outrageous deal or the car doesn't lose much. I lost about 28% on my Cooper S over 2 years. So while leasing would have been cheaper, overall my Cooper held its value. If I buy new again it'll only be via Euro Delivery.
By iskch
on March 3, 2009
09:03 AM
Agree! If you are looking for a used low miles sports car you will find good deals. Take the time to research and you will find some awesome deals.
By editor_karl
on March 3, 2009
09:48 AM
I can't believe what last-generation Z06s are going for. $25,000 and 405 horsepower?? That's a cubic-sh*t-ton of car for the money.
By orangutan
on March 3, 2009
11:12 AM
We're in the market for a used vehicle in the next month to few months, mostly because we can't afford a new vehicle.
By bbechtel16
on March 3, 2009
12:38 PM
BDC you bought an e90?!
By gooney911
on March 3, 2009
12:42 PM
I've purchased two new cars in the past year and a half. Both of those purchases were made with the assistance of affiliate/supplier discount programs. However, without those programs, and the incentives that were going on at the time to further reduce the price of the vehicles, I would not have been nearly as inclined to purchase new as opposed to Certified Pre-Owned.
As I've been planning for my next car, (Yes, I have a combustion addiction. ;) As soon as I get one car, I start looking ahead to the next fix..) I am definitely going to go the pre-owned route. I know at one point recently, Audi was offering 0.9% APR on CPO A3s, A4s, and even S4s of particular model years. And, as a newly minted Audi fan, I am eagerly waiting to see what the CPO prices on the current A4, A5, S5, and forthcoming S4 models will be five years down the road.
By pflyer
on March 3, 2009
01:33 PM
Karl,
The the best car value IMHO is a year or two old American sedan just out (or close to) of warranty.
Many buyers are terrified of domestic vehicles without a warranty and flock to Asian used cars. Used prices for Hondas and Toyotas are insane. Might as well buy a new one.
American sedans, OTOH, are fabulous deals. We buy all our cars slightly used and each one is an American made sedan or truck. Case in point: Bought my wife a 2004 Buick LeSabre Limited for $9,000 (50,000 miles) in the summer of 2007. It had an original sticker of over $33,000. The dealer couldn't give it away. It's perceived as an "old person's car." OK, maybe it is, but it's the finest car we have ever owned. It's bullet-proof, surprisingly frugal (30+ mpg on the highway, 24 city), holds all five in our family and is totally stealth. We can cruise at 85 mph all day and never get pulled over. The car is invisible.
I favor GM products, but really, there is not a poorly made American car today. I never bother with extended warranties either. Don't need 'em.
German used sedans out of warranty are also a great deal, but their repair costs and insurance are brutal. When you have to pay some high priest from Stuttgart $600 to put a new alternator in, you'll see what I mean.
By blueguydotcom
on March 3, 2009
01:57 PM
bbechtel, yep. I was set to buy an 09 WRX but before I showed up for my appointment I stopped in to drive a 335i manual sedan with sport. Wow. 100+ was effortless, felt like I had control of the engine (unlike that 6 speed automatic), the car danced at my whims. Came back from the drive grinning. Wife liked the smile. We did some research and found 3 total used 335i manuals within 500 miles. Got mine from a dealer in LA.
Would the WRX be faster? Yep. Handle better? Maybe. Hold more stuff? Yep. Be more reliable? Probably. Be cheaper to own and operate over the next years? Most likely. But...I couldn't get over it felt a little cheap inside and the 5 speed manual was driving me nuts. It just feels so unnatural to go to 5th gear after owning 3 cars with 6 speeds.
The 3's depreciated massively, it's got a lot of warranty left (more than the rex has new) and it just felt right after 2 years in the Cooper. I'm still trying to find a nice way to convince my wife that I need to ditch the 18 inch RFTs for a set of lighter 17 inch go flat tires.
By ahightower
on March 3, 2009
02:25 PM
I experienced the high value of used Hondas (Civics in particular, Accords also very good) when I was shopping in 2007. For anything under 40K miles, it was only a couple thousand less than a brand new one. Or, get a brand new Mazda3 for less than even the used Civic, which is what I finally did. If you like certain domestic cars that just happen to have poor resale value, there's a great deal to be had. But if you want some fun little high-mpg Japenese thing, you might as well buy new. In fact, those are the kind of used cars that worry be most because they were probably first owned by younger (aka less responsible) drivers.
By estreka
on March 3, 2009
05:26 PM
I've always been a used car guy. When I see a new product hit the market (like the Genesis for instance), I'm begin to savor the thought of owning it a year or two down the road (as I currently am). Not only do I get a fantastic deal, but I know a lot more about the car than someone that buys new. Think of it as "test before you buy". After Edmunds finishes it's LT testing of the Genesis, I'll be able to make an informed decision of what features are worth it and which aren't.
My buddy just bought a brand new Corvette for ~$50K. I just looked on eBay and found the same car for $34K, albeit 1 year old. That's a savings of 32%. Just for waiting 1 year.
I had another friend who bought a Jetta brand new after I tried to talk him out of it. He called me a couple months later saying he wish he had listened.
I think the biggest advantage of buying used is that the nostalgia factor isn't as strong. Sure, you can be the first on your block to own a brand new Civic, but I guarantee the cloud nine effect will wear off in a matter of months. If you're a shopaholic, stick to cheap things like clothes or golf clubs. You'll get the same amount of ooohs and aaahs without wasting a year's worth of college tuition.
By estreka
on March 3, 2009
05:39 PM
I think used car sales have been on the rise for quite some time. If nothing else, it could be because of the increased longevity of cars. 20 years ago, people would have laughed at you for buying a car with 100K miles on it. Now, it's perfectly acceptable. With increased inventory comes increased sales. The economy just drew light to this unseen market.
As with anything, the used car market is controlled by supply and demand. Indeed, used car prices will go up, or at least remain level. With that in mind, CPOs become the real value. Why buy a new car that depreciates quickly when a CPO is practically new but won't depreciate much? It can be assumed that age is indirectly proportional to value.
I personally worry about new car buyers moving to used cars. As a used car buyer, I see my ocean slowly being overfished. I'm thankful that many of the real gems of the used car market are older than most would be willing to buy, like an RX-7 or a Supra. Indeed, even common cars like the Integra aren't on the layperson's radar.
Sorry for the additional post, but I wanted to address the market effect of this recession/depression.
By redliner
on March 3, 2009
05:47 PM
We have always bought new cars except for my current car, a Jaguar XJR, which i bought used because the depreciation on a new on is just brutal. In one year, the value will drop from 80k to 50k. I drive a lot for work (4 to five hours every day) so i end up putting around 300k miles on my cars after five years.
By 1487
on March 4, 2009
05:45 AM
I think this trend is really going to hurt the luxury brands going forward. Depreciation is bad for most brands these days and thus you can save many thousands on a luxury branded vehicle by waiting 2-3 years. I see 2006 MY Audis in the paper for well under $30k. BMWs and MBs tend to be a little pricey in the used market but that will likely change as we go forward in this recession. I dont think the resale gap between the japanese cars and late model American cars is even that great anymore. One dealer had a 2007 Accord, Camry and Aura in an ad priced within $2k of one another.
By bbechtel16
on March 4, 2009
06:42 AM
Congrats on the purchase BDC. I still have my eye on a 128i (I'd rather the 130i 5-door, but anyway...), the 370Z, and the Genesis 2.0T (pending more reviews). My interest in the BMW was waning, mostly because of cost, but at the car show it was able to impress with its practicality. I'm not sure it's possible to put my bike in the hatch of the 370. Of course this all need to wait until I pay off my student loan, scrape together a down payment, blah blah blah. Might go used at that point. Hmmm...maybe a 25th birthday present to myself is in order. That's two years from now, and it will be a nice insurance drop. I haven't bought myself a car for my birthday since my 18th :-)
By blueguydotcom
on March 4, 2009
07:53 AM
1487, low 20s to high teens for a 2006 A4. Low 20s to high teens for a 2006 3 series. I can only imagine how hard most brands are getting hit when luxury makes are seeing 50%+ drops in private party resale value. A peek at trade-ins for 2006 entry luxury cars shows mid to high teens!
Heck I've seen 2008 G35s listed in the low twenties used!
By wizard8873
on March 4, 2009
09:14 AM
@blueguydotcom
If you around justright, you can find mid size lux cars going for high teens and low to mid 20's. the dealer i bought my M from has an M35 sport with 18k on it and they were asking 24k and then had an M45 Sport with 38k miles on it and asking 26k for one. it's just an unbeatable deal.
By wizard8873
on March 4, 2009
09:15 AM
hmmm, that first sentence should start as "if you just look around"
By blueguydotcom
on March 4, 2009
10:21 AM
Wizard, that's sick. Imagine how the lease companies are feeling right now?!
By 1487
on March 4, 2009
11:41 AM
I would imagine a lot of manufacturers are getting soaked on leases they made in 2006 right about now. Their estimates on residuals were probably way off. The reasons for buying a new luxury car keep on decreasing, especially if you are talking about a car like the G that has been out since 2007. I think the only models that wont have a problem are recently redesigned models.
By altimadude00
on March 4, 2009
11:47 AM
I had been interested in an 05 or 06 Altima for a while; I had test driven them while they were new and, ok, lusted after them for a while. But my then current ride was doing fine. I put close to 180k on my 2000 Altima in 8 years. It never failed me and never complained so much as a hiccup.
My current car, an 05 Altima was the first used car bought in my family in my memory. It had 34k on the clock and I got it for $14 and change (basically, half off from it's orig. sticker price. 10k miles later, I can't be any happier with my choice.
Which leads me to my point. Some one else earlier said that there was a glut of mars made a few years ago and that they are now on the used car lots. Typically, a three year old car does not have too much wear and tear on them. With the exception of the more widely used traction control, safety of these "older" cars is on par, fuel efficancy is near the same, and you miss out on the big depreciation hit.
I think used cars now offer a value that they haven't had in years past because cars of the last decade are so well built. There's little risk that a used car will be a dog nowadays.
By blueguydotcom
on March 4, 2009
02:25 PM
Median age of cars in use is 9.4 years:
http://www.autoblog.com/2009/03/04/study-median-age-of-cars-in-u-s-increases-to-record-high/