rick8365
- Feb 19, 2008 7:54 am
(#3 Total: 22)
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I care too.
I also think you may be right. I have had a feeling that something like this might be brewing except I have been thinking more about a more recent dip or "recession" - exact timeframe escapes me though. It’s the recent period of time that saw the extinction of the Camaro, RX7, Supra, 300ZX, 3000GT and other cars of this type or level of performance. Not the same as the 70s but still a significant trend and the one the one I've been fearing a return to. A return to the dark ages that Karl mentions would absolutely suck IMO.
I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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The SUV killed the RX7, Supra, 300ZX and 3000GT. To quote Jurassic Park. "This is not a bred that were killed off by over government regulation or "deforestation", no, no. Early 1990's sports cars "had their chance and nature selected them for extinction."
Love Jeff Goldblum in that movie.
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People will always want to go fast, be it in a chariot, on horseback, by ship, train, plane, or automobile. Thus, there will be demand. Given that, market forces dictate supply...of some sort.
Maybe it'll be electric cars (a la Tesla's Roadster), but people will get their kicks somehow.
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levyrob
- Feb 19, 2008 9:14 am
(#6 Total: 22)
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It will find a way, Karl. Performance cars will always be around, regardless of fuel prices or regulations. Car manufacturers use them as automotive proving grounds and halo cars for their lineup.
In some ways, the base performance of many cars on the road today compares with muscle cars of the 70's. Sure, these same cars don't have the rough and tumble image, but they have the horsepower and performance.
CTS-V, G8, Mustang GT, Z06, ZR-1 run the range from sedan to coupe offering American performance iron (OK, maybe not the G8). From overseas you've got high-performance Subarus, Nissans, Mitsubishis, Volkswagens, Audis, etc. They all have something to offer for super-fast 0-60 times in a wide range of platforms. These are the muscle cars of today and they're not going away.
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iskch
- Feb 19, 2008 9:54 am
(#7 Total: 22)
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Karl, I think the Corvette ZR1 & Nissan GT-R might be around from today to 5 years down the road. Technology will try to fix those issues regarding fuel economy and emissions. But, we can face a few issues later on like higher prices for gas (which is no brainer), lowering the bar of gas guzzling cars (meaning more cars and trucks included) and the big one "Insurance companies". It is going to be as drastic as 1970's ? I don't think so.
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rick8365
- Feb 19, 2008 10:02 am
(#8 Total: 22)
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Good point, Brett - maybe the SUV was the main reason. I think I also remember high insurance costs too.
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racerxl
- Feb 19, 2008 10:37 am
(#9 Total: 22)
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Yes they will exist 5 years from now; it just that they will come with large tax premiums at least in CA, NY and the other “Greener states”.
I don’t understand your comment “the Dark Ages” those were great times who can argue the prowess of the 77’ Mustang Ghia….ho wait maybe it wasn’t the car I was thinking about, but Charles Angel (Jacklyn Smith) who drove it. I think I just dated myself.
I do care, but HAL is the one to worry about because he will be driving our Grandkid’s cars if certain government and insurance forces have their way.
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estreka
- Feb 19, 2008 11:03 am
(#10 Total: 22)
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subarctic north - Great Falls, MT |
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First, I think this is being blown way out of porportion. As Karl relates to in his first paragraph, fuel economy standards are not going very far up. 27mpg (not 35) is very achievable in most applications and the costs are not going to be that high.
The only products that will go the way of the dodo (no offense Dodo) are high-powered vehicles that never should have reached production anyway. I'm looking at you FWD V8 Impala. If some of your favorites die off, it'll be because of poor sales, not fuel economy.
That said, don't believe for a minute that car companies aren't going to capitalize on this. The auto industry is taking hints from the oil industry and turning bad news into profitable news. Just last month Lutz said customers should expect an average $10K price hike on all vehicles by 2020.
Honestly, I don't care. Keep in mind this is a US-only self-inflicted embargo. Even if insurance companies are behind it all, other nations will continue to push the envelope of automotive technology and 15 years later the US will open the floodgates again, bringing us 3rd gen Supras and RX-7s and Corvettes with more power than we know what to do with.
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I cant see high performance cars like the GT-R and the Z06 not being there in five years, I mean five years isn't that long really.
But as far as caring I cant say I care much. Honestly most people here cant afford top dollar exotics and the insurance and maintenance that comes with. The only reason most people get excited about exotics is not that they can afford them, its that seeing them in the flesh is special.
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Karl,
As long as young men have too much testosterone and older men have mid-life crises, there will be a market for sports cars. Yes, the vehicles you mentioned will be around - I seem to recall the Corvette surviving the 70's-80's doldrums, and the Nissan Zs becoming prominent during that period as well.
Will the sports car market look different? Absolutely. Necessity is the mother of invention. We're already seeing some minor efficiency changes in some vehicles (such as electric-assist power steering instead of pump-driven) as well as major ones in others (hybrids, plug-in EVs). I would predict that some company will develop a working solenoid-actuated valvetrain in the next 10 years, doing away with the energy waste of the camshaft. I also think there will be an even greater emphasis on weight control in upcoming years to keep the hp/weight ratio up.
The big losers are going to be large V8 SUVs and sedans, which I would guess only a minority of current purchasers actually need. As long as China and India keep increasing their demand for oil, there will be increased competition for available oil resources and a concurrent increase in fuel prices. Market forces may reduce demand for low-mileage vehicles, but won't eliminate it.
To paraphrase Jurassic Park, sports cars WILL find a way. There may be gas guzzler taxes or higher insurance rates, but they will survive in some form.
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joberg
- Feb 19, 2008 12:32 pm
(#13 Total: 22)
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They will exist, but in all probability in a new form. Is that such a bad thing?
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aspade
- Feb 19, 2008 12:35 pm
(#14 Total: 22)
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The six figure supercars aren't going anywhere. They don't sell enough of them for CAFE to matter much, and another few thousand dollars in insurance premiums - or gas guzzler taxes or CAFE fines or all of the above - are only of academic interest to the target buyer.
The vehicles we're going to lose are the large ones ordinary people can afford. Light duty trucks, real SUVs, large CUVs, large RWD cars, anything with a V8. These types of vehicle will still be available, but at a 30-50% higher price point - partially to pay for new tech to get another few mpg out of them, but mostly to meet CAFE via keeping demand down and subsidizing the selling prices of the tiny 50 mpg crapboxes nobody really wants.
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"I seem to recall the Corvette surviving the 70's-80's doldrums, and the Nissan Zs becoming prominent during that period as well."
Yes but NOBODY collects or cares about the 1974-1982 Corvette. Same for the 280ZX or early 300ZX. Those cars were pathetic and appealled more to the luxury car market than anything else. Why?
Because the market was dictated to by government regulations and limited technology. Sound familiar?
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Brett,
I don't disagree with anything you said. The cars in the time period you mentioned definitely left something to be desired. However, while performance starting in 1974 was certainly less than what was offered previously, the premier American performance nameplate (Corvette) survived, and a new Japanese performance nameplate (Z) became more prominent on the scene, with performance for both models gradually increasing over time.
I would offer that government regulations for increased fuel economy are being increased gradually, giving manufacturers more time to adapt than previously (back in 1973). I would also suggest that the state of technology is more advanced than it was 35 years ago, with more creative ways now available to meet fuel economy targets without simply sacrificing performance.
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L.A. CA United States of America |
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All good points norcal. I'm hopeful that the technology on hand today will balance performance and fuel demands more effectively than it did 35 years ago.
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Thanks Karl.
I'm a bit of a techno-optimist, but there have been some major strides already to support a little optimism. For example, compare the Cadillac V4-6-8 debacle back in the early 80s with today's Honda VCM - clearly some progress is being made.
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mnorm1
- Feb 19, 2008 2:39 pm
(#19 Total: 22)
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My best guess is, there will performance cars in the future. The definition of performance cars may change just as it did in the 70' s and early 80's. Performance then meant 165 hp Mustangs, Camaros, and 180 hp Corvettes.
Insurance companies and mandated emission controls were blamed then. I suspect insurance companies and mandated higher mileage will be blamed this time.
I don't agree that SUVs killed the Supra, 300zx, Turbo Rx7, etc. in the 90's. I think it was price tags of $35-40k - astronomical then.
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Saint Louis MO United States of America |
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Yes, those cars will still exist.
Do I care? Sure. But am I going to buy one? No -- I'll probably just dream about it.
Karl, I think this is really what's happening. It's not that powerful performance cars will cease to exist -- rather the much higher volume pedestrian cars will become more efficient. From a CAFE perspective, it's about improving the fleet, and the way you do that is by affecting the most change to the largest demographic. What difference does it make if a Corvette or Viper get lousy milage, when so few of them are on the road (and they are driven even less)? It's the Malibus, Camrys, F150s and SUVs that "should" be improved.
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The cars will exist but will become more expensive to insure and to license.
One outcome of the IIHS and other debates could be two-tier licensing ("you want to drive that 600+ HP Corvette? Special driving license needed for you, buddy!").
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L.A. CA United States of America |
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That's what I've wanted for some time. I like he idea of giving people as much liberty as possible, even if it means additional testing/certification. Please, somebody put me through a thorough test to confirm my familiarity with trail braking, apex clipping, heel-and-toe shifting and overall judgment skills while navigating a difficult road course AND tricky real-world traffic situations.
Then, after that, LEAVE ME THE HELL ALONE unless and until I cause some type of ACTUAL property/personal damage. Certainly don't bother me because I'm doing 72 in a 55 zone that happens to be in the middle of nowhere while driving a highly capable vehicle that is safe at twice that speed.
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