Here's some non-news - car sales are in the toilet.

I know we're already a week into May, but I just got April's numbers from our data folks (my fault, not theirs) and it's not a pretty picture. Here's the basic rundown in all its badness:

April car sales were the worst since 1995, and 8% below March (usually sales pick up from March to April)

The Honda Accord was the best selling vehicle last month, better not only than Camry, but better than Ford F-150 and Chevy Silverado, too (the Silverado started the year in the #1 position, and the Chevy/Ford full-size trucks have outsold midsize sedans for years)

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You may have already heard this, but there's a growing relationship between Chrysler and Nissan. For complete details, check out Michelle Krebs' excellent analysis on AutoObserver.com.

Like many automakers, Nissan and Chrysler are two companies with clearly-defined strengths and weaknesses. What wasn't so obvious to me, until hearing about the budding partnership and reading Michelle's article, is how perfectly these two entities line up and how much stronger they could be as a single unit. Recent history suggests that mergers on this scale are never as simple as they appear at first glance, and the last thing either automaker needs is another failed coupling.

But bottom line -- Cerberus Capital Management is a "show me the money" group of guys, and Carlos Ghosn has wanted a U.S. paring for awhile. It doesn't take a crystal ball to see where this might go, though for now both companies are merely talking about model-sharing plans. How far will these plans go? Let take a look at the obvious ones (all stolen from Michelle's article):

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The final numbers for March are in. The news isn't pretty, but that's not particularly surprising. Our data hounds have crunched the figures and added their trademark analysis to give them meaning. Here are the sales numbers for the "Big 6" automakers:

1. Chrysler LLC is down 16% so far this year, with Wrangler down 31%, Grand Cherokee down 25%, Ram down 25%, Town & Country down 7%, Compass down 12% and Durango down 37%. But the Avenger is up 63%, Sebring is up 45% and even the Caliber(!) is up 15%. Who knew?

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If you think 2008 will be a tough year for automakers, you're right! I predicted as much back on January 3, and with the first quarter of 2008 coming to an end, it appears the chickens have come home to roost. As reported by the Associated Press in this Business Week article, March sales are expected to be down 12-to-22 percent compared to March 2007. Annual new car sales for 2008 could be the lowest since 1994, with the latest predictions ranging from 15.5 million to 14.95 million units. Incentive spending, also on the decline in recent years, has inched up to $2,469 per vehicle and is creeping toward the 2004 record number of $2,603.

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A news story yesterday reported on the production of (and promotional blitz surrounding) the 25,000th Dodge Viper ever built.

I vividly remember the first time I saw the Dodge Viper concept car. It was in a multi-page insert in a 1988 Car & Driver magazine. At the time I was a college student attending Pepperdine and I recall sitting in that 15x15 dorm room with my numbskull roommate, Patrick, trying to explain the level of cool that concept car represented. I was even more floored when Dodge announced it for production and stated it would indeed have the same V10 engine displayed in the concept car.

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Take the current list of challenges facing the U.S. auto industry and add one more -- an ongoing UAW/CAW strike involving American Axle and TRW. Word on the street is that both sides are dug in and ready for a lengthy strike. American Axle produces many parts for GM's full-size trucks, and TRW supplies componentry for the Chrysler/Dodge minivans. Both GM and Chrysler have a fair supply of vehicles on hand so sales won't be impacted...in the near term. However, if the strike spills over into additional suppliers and/or plants it could affect GM's crossover production -- one of the few bright spots in GM's current sales portfolio. Ouch!

But here's the question:

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You've heard my predictions on the 1 Series (expect success), the Lancer Evolution (fabulous, despite taunts of "selling out") and the new Dodge Challenger (ummm...). But there are dozens of new models about to hit showroom (G8, M3, Sequoia, F Series, etc) and, frankly, I can't drive them all. Well...maybe I can, but that doesn't mean you should simply take my word on the future success or failure of these models.

Edmunds just launched a new feature on Inside Line called Car Stock Exchange, and as the name implies, it allows you to trade "stock" on new models by predicting how well a given model will sell. As with other virtual stock exchanges, this one uses play money, but the initial stock prices are based on an estimate of vehicle sales during a model's first six months on the market, and the final stock valuation is tied to the real-world sales numbers. The game launched last week, it's free to play, and there are 25 models currently available to invest your starting amount of one million CSX dollars. A new vehicle is added every week (next up, the BMW X6) and prizes like a Nintendo Wii will be awarded based on portfolio performance at regular intervals.

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This year marks the 100th anniversary of General Motors. Most of us probably remember Ford's "Centennial Celebration" of 2003. Ford's celebration largely eclipsed Buick's 100 year anniversary, also in 2003, though fans of the brand (and GM) certainly marked the occasion. Oldsmobile's 100th birthday came in 1997.

Here's the question -- can a car company remain strong and prosperous after 100 years? Few people would argue that Ford is in a stronger position today than it was in 2003. The same could be said of Buick. And we all know how Oldsmobile is doing... If you were to use Oldsmobile as the example, it was euthanized in 2004, giving it a 107-year lifespan. Ford and Buick will be 107 in 2010. GM will be 107 in 2015. Dodge will be 107 in 2021. Hmmm...

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The official numbers are coming in later today, but the oracles within Edmunds.com have given me enough great data to make some automotive preditions for 2008. As most of you have probably surmised, it looks to be a tough year...

Sales: 2007 will go down as the worst year in new-car sales since 1998 -- something on the order of 16.06 million units. It's hard to badge any year of sales over 16 million as "bad" but the fact remains it's the worst year in nearly a decade. We're predicting 2008 sales to come in "under 15.9 million units" but we're not sure how far "under" that number will be. Lots of variables in play in the coming year (elections, oil prices, economic health, etc.).

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Rather than list off my New Year's resolutions let's talk about the resolutions I'd really like to see the automakers and policymakers embrace and keep. Below are my Top Five Automaker/Policy Maker Resolutions for 2008 (note: may not represent any actual resolutions made by any actual automakers or policymakers, real or imagined):

1. We as automakers resolve to put each and every model on a diet. We understand that technology can usually overcome increasing vehicle poundage by improving power, thus maintaining straightline acceleration (often with a minimal hit to fuel mileage as well). But we also know that a heavier car is harder to turn or stop, to say nothing of the impact (literally) in an accident situation. Thus, we vow to put our vehicles on a diet, which improves acceleration, handling and fuel mileage.

2. We as policy makers vow to acknowledge that we can never completely end automobile-related injuries. We understand that no matter how many safety devices we mandate in an automobile we can never fully address the loose nut behind the wheel. Furthermore, for every additional device we mandate we add complexity, cost and weight (see resolution #1 above) and we realize these devices are in and of themselves something of a safety hazard. After all, really safe cars that nobody can afford don't save lives; neither do really heavy cars that are difficult to slow down and/or tend to plow through other cars/people/buildings when they crash.

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