Battery Technology and GM's Plug-in Hybrid
Well folks, the great plug-in hybrid race is heating up.
The phrase, the "plug-in hybrid race" was coined by Felix Kramer of CalCars.org. When Kramer used that term, maybe two weeks into January, he was referring to GM's announcement to build the Saturn VUE plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and the Chevrolet Volt. But soon thereafter Toyota joined the race and now Honda is reportedly jumping into the running...
This morning we had an opportunity to hear from GM's PHEV team and get a status report on battery development. It was very cool to be welcomed into the inner sactum but there weren't a lot of hard answers. It all kept coming back to the old conversation stopper: battery technology.
Battery technology is the great answer deflector. Here's how it works:
General Public: Gee whiz! When will these cool cars that get over 100 mpg and don't release greenhouse gases be available for me to buy?!
Big Auto: Well, it all comes down to battery technology. You see, plug-ins require lithium ion batteries and they aren't fully up to speed yet. They're close and we're working hard but there are lots of things to take into consideration when you mass produce them. And furthermore blah blah blah...
General Public: Oh okay. Whatever. I thought something was actually going to happen.
While we certainly learned a lot about what GM is doing, and we learned that this is getting high priority, we didn't get any closer to finding out when production will begin on PHEVs.
GM VP Beth Lowery kicked off the meeting by saying that we need "energy diversity" and "GM needs to be part of the solution." She said that GM offers more cars that get 30 mpg on the highway than any other manufacturer. She was backed up by a number of speakers in various areas of development and production. Listening to them, I thought, "Yeah, there really is a lot to this and I need to be fair to GM."
But then a number of journalists raised some interesting questions:
Tesla Motors is already in production with a fully electric car using lithium ion batteries. A second Telsa car, at a more affordable price, will come out soon. If they can do it, why is GM still in the research phase?
Why can't GM release a PHEV with a lower warranty than the proposed one of 150,000 miles/10 years? Why not warranty the battery for 75,000 miles and get some of these cars on the road?
Advocates such as CalCars.org have already modified hybrids for plug-in hybrids and logged tens of thousands of miles. Where are the GM prototypes?
Finally, one of the journalists raised the specter of Toyota outpacing GM. I wish one of the GM execs had said, "Look, there's no way that's gonna happen. We're going to win this one." Unfortunately, the answer was not overwhelmingly confident.
GM, we're rooting for you on this one. You have the technology. You have good people. You're in motion. Please, please, please give U.S. drivers something the cheer about. And more importantly, give them something to buy.
- Posted by
- Philip Reed March 12, 2007, 10:59 AM
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Thanks for a great (and entertaining) report. Here's what the California Cars Initiative said after this briefing (more complete report at http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/713.html (CalCars News: GM's Media Briefing on PHEVs Offers Major Opportunity).
In creating a development program that requires a 150,000-mile battery now, GM may be making the perfect the enemy of the good. Validating the full lifetime of batteries takes a long time -- it could be the challenge that delays the introduction of a vehicle that might otherwise be ready sooner. GM can't imagine the first PHEV batteries as a "maintenance part." Why not? Tires and other major components get replaced -- and they're warranted separately from cars.
All PHEV advocates want car-makers to be sure to get everything right on safety, durability and performance. Then, for large demonstration fleets, CalCars has proposed starting with "good enough" 75,000-mile batteries plus a third-party warranty to remove the risk factors from both buyers and sellers. And planners at electric utilities have said they would consider buying used batteries for secondary stationery applications.
If GM and other car-makers can partner with government regulators, legislators and utilities, we'll be we're on our way to more rapid commercialization of PHEVs. The first large demonstration fleets will give car-makers market research from drivers and help them "get PHEVs right" by improving other aspects of the car. And while they get ready for volume production, with the rapid changes in the energy storage industry, they may have even better battery choices in as little as two years.
-- Felix Kramer, CalCars Founder
Thanks for the great work you are doing advocating for PHEVs. I'm sure you've already considered this. But when questioning GM's actions or inactions with respect to putting PHEVs into production, did you consider that the really don't want this technology to progress very quickly. Electrification of vehicles is a disruptive technology that big auto is not ready for. When electric cars come on line, they won't require much or any maintenance. When you take into consideration the billions in profits associated with maintaining the internal combustion engine (tuneups, oil changes, filters, exhaust system replacements etc etc etc) who wants to speed up the race to PHEVs? My money is on the startups like Tesla. Big auto, including Toyota, won't win this race. Companies like Tesla will leave them in the dust. What do you think? Am I missing something here?
The short answer on Tesla is that lashing together 6,831 off-the-shelf camera batteries with a substantial load of sensors, monitors and control logic is a short-term solution that GM can't ramp to tens of thousands of production vehicles.
I'll be very surprised if Tesla's Whitestar sedan (four years hence or so) uses that same solution.
And as for wiring an energy battery onto the power battery in a Prius, some of the hacks to the control logic advocated on the plug-in community groups scare the bejesus out of me. Sure, it works, but I'd be kinda shocked if it works in all the climatic, stress, load, and durability tests that are required for a GM to sell a vehicle in the real world.
These are tough, tough issues, folks.
That said ... I hope like hell that GM didn't fire before aiming, and rush the Volt out there before they knew the technology would support it. Because if they did, "Who Killed the Electric Car?" may seem mild.
This promises to be a very interesting story over the next 20 years ....
jvoelcker - when I saw GM's presentation I had some of the same thoughts. Still, I don't think this question is completely one of technology. The introduction of electric cars threatens the livelihood of the repair industry and, more directly, the oil industry as andersenjp points out. Oil has a stranglehold on us and it is, indeed, strangling us. As Felix says there are ways around the problems they keep raising. Furthermore, I think the public is more open to these new cars (including possibly some limitations) than anyone realizes. The American public is sick of being dependent on foreign oil. Why can't GM, a great American company, be a true leader?
What makes an American Company great? Succesfully seeking and acquiring the almighty dollar. GM is maybe reluctant to stick its neck out too far because they are only just now emerging from a pretty serious slump. Wouldn't everyone be deriding them if they emerge from the mishaps of recent years only to goof with PHEVs? They have the producion capacity, the technology, and the ideas. What they need is the best battery available and from a reliable supplier. GM may be playing it safe on this one because they can't afford the PR hit if they mess it up. If they do it right, lots of Americans might welcome GM cars into their garages with open arms. If they screw it up, another generation will shop for a new car with this mantra: "I'm never buying an American car."
That said. I believe these cars are coming, and I think GM is foolish for not putting some test cars out there and getting some good publicity out of it. Even if the cars weren't perfect, people would be encouraged to know that GM was trying and working toward the goal of PHEV mass production.
The horse and buggy lobby said that the ICE would never work. "They're too loud, they're too slow, they're too expensive! Have saddle will travel!" Look at them now. The same can be said for the ICE advocates today. Electric cars, PHEVs and alternatively fueled vehicles are the future. It may take time to silence the nay-sayers, but history shows that victory ultimately lies with progress and innovation. So keep advocating and bide your time.
One of the toughest questions still has not been asked from GM.
How is that, in 1998, they were able to produce a working, driving series hybrid, four door model, range 390 miles .. based on EV1, but the Volt rolls around at 5mph max powered by small DC motor ?
Look up the 1998 EV1 Series hybrid version prototype. How is the current Volt an improvement over that ( apart from styling and targetted speed specs ), eight years later ?
Why not take what was done then and simply improve upon it right now ?
Just a quick summary:
EV1 series hybrid prototype was EV1 with elongated body, four seats. It had a gas turbine generator onboard, extending the range of it to nearly 400 miles, it was demoed at couple of autoshows and you can still google up a few pages on it from the web.
In contrast to current Volt, it was a real car, as in running, working, able to hit the road.
As a battery expert, I'm astounded at the ignorance of those on this blog who have expressed strong beliefs about such things as the EV-1. One blogger claimed that GM has a version of the EV-1 with a
range extender and never built it. No wonder. The EV-1 cost a fortune as it was - adding the extra nechanicals would have also made that overweight puppy (3600 pounds) heavier than a Chevy pickup. The batteries in the EV-1 were NiMH - no automaker today developing
either an electric or a plug-in is even considering this type of battery.
GM would have been foolish to mass produce any car back then with such a battery.
I might add that there are a lot of misconceptions about what GM is willing to accept in a battery. No one is actually going to need to time test a battery that must have a lifespan that exceeds 10 years.
GM (actually their battery test company) will cycle the test battery packs a large number of times and measure degradation to determine approximate lifespan.
I find it bizarre that many seem to believe that only GM holds the
key to future plug-ins and electrics. There are 15 other major automakers out there and most have forged a connection with a battery company and are designing bona-fide plug-ins. The cost of batteries makes electics totally impractical - the Tesla is not even close to being a practical car, with batteries that require almost 4 hours to recharge. I can just imagine taking a trip in such a car.
It would last forever.